QUEZON CITY — October 20, 2026: The outer rain band of Super Typhoon Champi — a powerful storm currently churning well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility — is already making itself felt across parts of the country this Tuesday, according to PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast bulletin. While the typhoon itself poses no direct wind threat to the Philippines at this time, its trough is funneling moisture and instability into the eastern sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas, raising the risk of flash floods and landslides in affected communities.
PAGASA issued this forecast at 4:00 AM on October 20, 2026, valid until 4:00 AM on October 21, 2026.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two weather systems are at work across the Philippines today. The dominant feature is the trough of Super Typhoon Champi. A trough is essentially an elongated zone of low pressure that extends outward from a tropical cyclone, even when the storm itself is far away. It acts like a pipeline, pulling in moisture and triggering rainfall and thunderstorms along its path — in this case, across the eastern portions of Southern Luzon and the Visayas. Champi is located 1,605 kilometers east of Central Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 240 km/h, moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h. As of 3:00 AM today, the system remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and carries no active wind signals over any part of the country.
Separately, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) — a belt of clouds and rainfall near the equator where trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet — is bringing wet conditions to Palawan. Meanwhile, the easterlies, the prevailing winds blowing from the Pacific Ocean toward the west, are influencing the weather in Extreme Northern Luzon, including Batanes and the Babuyan Islands.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The most significant weather activity in Luzon is concentrated in the east. Catanduanes — the island province off the Bicol Peninsula — is directly under the influence of Champi's trough and can expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the day. PAGASA specifically warns that moderate to at times heavy rains in these areas could trigger flash floods and landslides. Residents near rivers, drainage channels, and hillside communities in Catanduanes should remain on alert.
In the far north, Batanes and the Babuyan Islands will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by the easterlies. While conditions are less severe than in the eastern Bicol region, PAGASA notes that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by localized thunderstorm activity. The same caveat applies: flash floods and landslides are possible if a thunderstorm intensifies. Expect generally fair spells between rain bouts for most of the capital region and nearby provinces.
Visayas
The Visayas region sees the clearest impact of Champi's trough. Northern Samar and Eastern Samar are placed under the same warning as Catanduanes — cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with the risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Communities in low-lying coastal and upland areas of these provinces should monitor water levels in rivers and streams closely.
The rest of the Visayas will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms from localized thunderstorms, with flash floods and landslides possible during any severe storm episode.
Mindanao
Mindanao is outside the direct influence of both Champi's trough and the ITCZ today. The island group can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized thunderstorm activity, with flash floods and landslides possible during severe thunderstorms. Conditions are broadly more stable compared to the eastern Visayas and Bicol, but residents should not discount the possibility of sudden, localized downpours.
Palawan
Palawan is under the influence of the ITCZ and will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. Moderate to at times heavy rains may lead to flash floods or landslides, particularly in mountainous and low-elevation areas of the province. Residents of Puerto Princesa and nearby municipalities should exercise caution.
Decoding the Warnings
PAGASA has not raised any Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal over any part of the Philippines, as Super Typhoon Champi remains far outside PAR. However, the agency has issued flash flood and landslide hazard advisories for Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Palawan — the areas receiving scattered to at times heavy rainfall today.
In plain terms: these advisories mean that the rainfall expected in these areas is heavy enough to cause rivers to overflow quickly and for slopes to become unstable. You do not need to see a storm signal to be in danger — heavy rain alone is sufficient to trigger life-threatening flooding and landslides. If you live near a river, a hillside, or in a low-lying area in these provinces, do not wait for flooding to begin before you act.
For the rest of the country, the hazard warnings are tied to localized thunderstorms. These storms can develop quickly and bring sudden, intense rainfall to a small area. Even without a formal warning, flash flooding in urban areas and landslides in hilly terrain are possible wherever a severe thunderstorm strikes. Understanding how PAGASA categorizes and communicates these risks is important — you can learn more about how to read PAGASA's weather warnings in our explainer.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters
Metro Manila and other urban centers across the archipelago face the prospect of isolated but potentially heavy thunderstorms at any time of day. Commuters should carry rain gear and allow extra travel time, particularly in the afternoon when thunderstorms tend to be most intense. Be alert to flood-prone underpasses and streets, and avoid areas known to accumulate floodwater quickly during heavy downpours.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters along the eastern sections of Luzon and Visayas are forecast to be moderate to rough, with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.8 meters. PAGASA strongly advises small seacraft operators to exercise extreme caution or remain in port. The rest of Luzon and Visayas will have slight to moderate coastal waters, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters. Mindanao's coastal waters are also slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.8 to 2.5 meters. Even in areas with slight to moderate seas, sudden changes driven by afternoon thunderstorms can quickly worsen sea conditions. All mariners should check the latest PAGASA maritime bulletins before departure.
Farmers
Farmers in Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Palawan should secure crops, equipment, and livestock ahead of the day's expected scattered to heavy rains. The risk of flash flooding means that low-lying farmland near waterways could be inundated. In other parts of the country, scattered afternoon thunderstorms could bring localized but intense rainfall — watch for runoff and soil erosion on sloped agricultural land.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Palawan should monitor local government announcements on class suspensions, given PAGASA's warning of moderate to at times heavy rains with hazard risks. In Metro Manila and the rest of the country, conditions are less severe but isolated thunderstorms can develop rapidly — parents sending children to school should ensure they have rain gear and a clear plan for early dismissal scenarios.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others who work outdoors across the country should plan their tasks around the possibility of sudden thunderstorms. In eastern Samar, Catanduanes, and Palawan, outdoor work in exposed hillside or riverside areas is particularly risky today given the active rain hazard advisories. Seek shelter immediately if thunder or lightning is observed — do not wait for heavy rain to begin.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 32.9°C (at 4:00 PM) and a minimum of 25.0°C (at 4:00 AM) for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM yesterday. Relative humidity peaked at 90% (at 5:00 AM) and dropped to a minimum of 57% (at 4:00 PM). These figures reflect conditions recorded at the Diliman station and represent the Metro Manila area specifically. No heat index warning has been issued for today.
Tides and Astronomical Information (Metro Manila)
For those in Metro Manila and nearby coastal communities, today's tidal information courtesy of NAMRIA: High tide at 3:39 AM (0.93 m); Low tide at 1:22 PM (-0.01 m). Sunrise is at 5:48 AM; Sunset at 5:33 PM. The moon rises at 1:28 PM and sets at 12:22 AM, with 67% illumination.
Bottom Line
If you are in Catanduanes, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, or Palawan, be ready to move to higher ground or safer shelter at short notice — scattered to heavy rains today bring a real risk of flash floods and landslides in your area. Everyone else in the country should keep an eye on the sky: isolated but intense thunderstorms can strike at any time, and small-boat operators along the eastern coast of Luzon and Visayas should stay ashore given rough to moderate sea conditions.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph