Super Typhoon Champi has re-intensified and is now moving west-northwestward toward the Philippines, with its center located 1,515 kilometers east of Southeastern Luzon as of 4:00 PM on Monday, October 19, according to Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 5A issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 5:00 PM on the same day.
The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, with gustiness reaching up to 230 km/h and a central pressure of 940 hectopascals. Tropical cyclone-force winds extend outward up to 720 kilometers from the center.
PAR Entry Expected Tuesday Morning or Early Afternoon
According to PAGASA, Champi will continue moving west-northwestward until it crosses into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday, October 20, sometime in the morning or early afternoon. Upon entering PAR, the typhoon will be assigned the Philippine domestic name Rosal.
The storm is forecast to maintain its super typhoon status as it enters PAR, with further intensification still possible as it moves over the Philippine Sea. PAGASA said the tropical cyclone will continue on a west-northwestward track through Wednesday, October 21, before shifting generally northwestward beginning Thursday, October 22.
The storm is expected to exit the PAR region by Saturday, October 24, according to the same advisory.
Forecast Track and Intensity Through Saturday
PAGASA's track and intensity forecast shows Champi reaching its peak strength during the early stages of PAR entry. At the 12-hour mark — by 2:00 AM on Tuesday, October 20 — the storm's center will be approximately 1,595 kilometers east of Central Luzon, still outside PAR, with maximum sustained winds intensifying to 205 km/h.
By 2:00 PM on Tuesday, the storm is forecast to be 1,280 kilometers east of Central Luzon with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h. It will be at 1,025 kilometers east of Northern Luzon by 2:00 AM on Wednesday, October 21, maintaining the same intensity.
At the 48-hour mark — 2:00 PM on Wednesday — Champi is forecast to be 790 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan, still at 195 km/h. By 2:00 AM on Thursday, October 22, the center will be approximately 555 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, with winds at 195 km/h.
A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Thursday, according to PAGASA. By 2:00 PM Thursday, the storm will be 445 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, with winds easing to 185 km/h. At the 96-hour mark — 2:00 PM on Friday, October 23 — the storm will be 345 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, with winds decreasing to 165 km/h, at which point it will be classified as a typhoon rather than a super typhoon.
By 2:00 PM on Saturday, October 24, the center is forecast to be 555 kilometers north of Itbayat, Batanes — outside PAR — with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h, still at typhoon strength.
Wind Signals Expected Over Northern Luzon and Bicol
PAGASA warned that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals may be hoisted over the northern and eastern portions of Northern Luzon and parts of the Bicol Region as early as Monday evening or Tuesday morning in anticipation of strong winds associated with the approaching typhoon.
The agency said the highest wind signal anticipated under the current forecast scenario is Wind Signal No. 2 or No. 3. Gusty conditions over most parts of Luzon and the Visayas, as well as portions of Mindanao, are expected to begin by Wednesday, October 21.
PAGASA also warned of heavy rains over Extreme Northern Luzon, noting that a separate Weather Advisory will be issued in anticipation of those rains.
Hazardous Seas Expected Along Luzon Seaboards
On the marine front, PAGASA warned that moderate to rough sea conditions may begin affecting the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of the Visayas and Mindanao as early as Tuesday, October 20.
Hazardous sea conditions — classified as very rough, high, or very high seas — may affect the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon beginning Wednesday onwards. PAGASA said a Gale Warning for very rough seas will be issued Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
Mariners and fishing vessels operating in affected seaboards are urged to monitor updates closely as conditions deteriorate.
Public and DRRM Offices Advised to Monitor Updates
PAGASA advised the public and all disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) offices concerned to continue monitoring for updates as the typhoon approaches. The agency said the next advisory would be issued at 11:00 PM on Monday, October 19, unless an intermediate issuance is warranted before then.
Advisory No. 5A was prepared by PAGASA's Weather and Flood Forecasting Center in Quezon City under the Department of Science and Technology. The full advisory is available at pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph.
Photo credit: Photo from PAGASA / DOST