QUEZON CITY — Saturday, September 26, 2026 — Two weather systems are conspiring to bring rain, thunderstorms, and rough seas across a large swath of the Philippines today: Severe Tropical Storm "Queenie," currently churning in the waters east of Batanes, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) draped across Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued this forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid through 4:00 AM Sunday, September 27.
Residents from Caraga to Zamboanga Peninsula, and from Palawan to the Davao region, face the highest risk of flash floods and landslides today as the ITCZ pumps moisture-laden clouds across southern and central parts of the archipelago. Even Metro Manila and the wider Luzon region are not spared — localized thunderstorms could produce sudden, intense downpours that can cause flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two distinct systems are at work on this Saturday.
Severe Tropical Storm "Queenie" was located 615 kilometers east of Itbayat, Batanes, at 3:00 AM today. It carries maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 115 km/h, and it is moving in a northwestward direction at 15 km/h. A severe tropical storm is a system stronger than an ordinary tropical storm but not yet at typhoon strength — its winds and outward moisture are already powerful enough to churn seas and push unsettled weather toward northern Luzon even from a distance of over 600 kilometers.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a broad band of clouds and thunderstorms that forms where the trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet near the equator. Think of it as a long, slow-moving rain factory that parks itself over a region and continuously feeds it with clouds and downpours. Today, PAGASA says the ITCZ is directly affecting Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao — covering a huge portion of the country's southern and central regions.
Together, these two systems mean that nearly the entire country is dealing with some form of rain or unsettled weather today.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
Metro Manila and the broader Luzon region can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms today, driven by localized thunderstorm activity. While this is not the most severe weather pattern in today's forecast, isolated thunderstorms can be deceptively dangerous — they can intensify rapidly, producing heavy rain in a short period that overwhelms drainage systems and causes flash floods in urban and low-lying areas. Residents of flood-prone neighborhoods in Metro Manila and nearby provinces should remain alert throughout the day.
PAGASA notes that the northern and eastern sections of Luzon will experience winds coming from the southwest to northwest direction at light to moderate intensity. Coastal waters in these areas are forecast to range from slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters — the roughest sea conditions in the country today, likely influenced by the proximity of Severe Tropical Storm "Queenie" to the east of Batanes.
For the rest of Luzon outside Metro Manila, conditions are similar — partly cloudy to cloudy skies, isolated showers or thunderstorms tied to the ITCZ, and coastal waters ranging from slight to moderate with waves of 0.6 to 1.5 meters. Winds are southwesterly to westerly and light to moderate.
Visayas
The Visayas region is split into two weather zones today, both under the influence of the ITCZ.
The hardest-hit areas include Negros Island Region and Central Visayas, where PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. These are not isolated showers — scattered rains mean the rainfall is more widespread and persistent. PAGASA explicitly warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at-times heavy rains in these areas. Residents in mountainous and riverine communities in these provinces should be particularly cautious.
The rest of the Visayas can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Flash floods and landslides remain possible, especially during the more severe thunderstorm episodes.
Winds across Visayas blow from the southwest to west at light to moderate speed. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with waves ranging from 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Mindanao
Mindanao bears some of the worst weather in the country today, with several provinces under a more serious rainfall outlook driven by the ITCZ.
Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Davao Oriental are forecast to have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with possible flash floods or landslides from moderate to at-times heavy rainfall. These are high-risk conditions for communities near rivers, mountain slopes, and low-lying flood plains.
The rest of Mindanao will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. Even in the less affected areas, severe thunderstorm episodes can trigger localized flash flooding and landslides, PAGASA warns.
Winds over Mindanao come from the south to southwest, blowing at light to moderate intensity. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
Decoding the Warnings: What PAGASA's Hazard Alerts Actually Mean
Today's forecast does not carry tropical cyclone wind signals, gale warnings, or color-coded rainfall warnings (yellow, orange, or red) in the PAGASA bulletin as of 4:00 AM. However, PAGASA explicitly flags two significant hazards in specific areas:
- "Possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at-times heavy rains" — This applies to Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Palawan, and Davao Oriental. This language signals that rainfall accumulations may be intense enough and sustained enough to trigger rapid flooding in low-lying areas and destabilize slopes in elevated terrain. You do not need to wait for a color-coded rainfall warning to take precautions — this forecast language alone is a signal to be ready to move if flooding threatens.
- "Possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms" — This applies to the rest of Visayas, the rest of Mindanao, and Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Thunderstorms can develop without much warning and produce intense, localized rainfall in a short time. A thunderstorm in your area means you should immediately seek sturdy shelter and stay off roads if possible.
Not sure how to read PAGASA's warning levels and what each one requires you to do? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings — it breaks down every rainfall color, storm signal number, and heat index category in plain language.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters
Expect the possibility of sudden, intense downpours in Metro Manila and other urban centers today. Localized thunderstorms can flood streets with little warning. Give yourself extra travel time, avoid crossing flooded roads or underpasses, and check road conditions before heading out. If a thunderstorm hits while you are driving, pull over safely and wait for it to pass rather than risking flooded areas.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Coastal waters are rated slight to moderate across the country today, but conditions along the northern and eastern coasts of Luzon are the roughest — with waves reaching up to 2.1 meters. Small boat operators in these areas should exercise extreme caution or defer travel. Even in the "slight to moderate" zones covering Visayas and Mindanao, the combination of active thunderstorms from the ITCZ and moderate wave heights makes sea conditions hazardous for small vessels. PAGASA's standard advisory applies: those operating small sea craft are strongly cautioned.
Farmers
Widespread and persistent rains across the Visayas and much of Mindanao today could affect crops and farm operations. Farmers in Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Negros Island Region, and Central Visayas should secure harvests and equipment where possible. Waterlogged fields and the risk of flash floods in river valleys make field work risky today. Monitor local weather and river level updates throughout the day.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents sending children to school today in Mindanao and the Visayas — particularly in Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Negros Island Region, and Central Visayas — should watch for any local government announcements of class suspensions triggered by the heavy rain forecast. Even areas not under the most severe weather outlook, including Metro Manila, can experience sudden thunderstorms. Ensure children have rain gear and know what to do if weather worsens while at school.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers in exposed outdoor settings — construction sites, agricultural lands, ports, and coastal facilities — face double risks today: thunderstorm lightning strikes and flash flood hazards. Workers in Mindanao and the Visayas, especially in the ITCZ-affected provinces, should follow their employers' severe weather protocols and halt operations if a thunderstorm develops in the immediate area. Avoid hilltops, open fields, and elevated structures during lightning.
Temperature and Heat Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 31.7°C at 1:00 PM yesterday, with a minimum of 24.1°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 95% to a low of 58%. The combination of warmth and high humidity, even under cloudy skies, means the air will feel muggy and uncomfortable today — particularly during any breaks in cloud cover. Stay hydrated and avoid prolonged outdoor exertion, especially if you are in areas where the rain pauses temporarily but heat and humidity remain high.
Sunrise over Metro Manila today is at 5:45 AM and sunset at 5:50 PM. Moonrise was at 5:28 PM yesterday, with moonset at 5:05 AM today. The moon is at 100% illumination — a full moon — which, combined with today's tidal predictions for Manila Bay, may contribute to slightly elevated water levels along low-lying coastal areas of the bay.
Manila Bay Tidal Information (Courtesy of NAMRIA)
For reference, today's tidal predictions for Manila Bay are as follows: low tide of 0.37 meters at 2:39 AM, high tide of 1.01 meters at 9:43 AM, low tide of 0.23 meters at 4:36 PM, and high tide of 0.69 meters at 10:28 PM. During periods of heavy rain coinciding with high tide, low-lying coastal barangays along Manila Bay should be especially watchful for flooding.
Bottom line: The most urgent priority today is for residents across the Visayas and Mindanao — especially in Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Palawan, and Davao Oriental — to stay alert for flash floods and landslides. Heavy rain can develop quickly under the ITCZ. If you live near a river, a mountain slope, or a low-lying area in these regions, know your evacuation route and do not wait for water to reach your door before acting. For everyone else across the country, the watchword today is: do not ignore a thunderstorm.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.