QUEZON CITY, September 2, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is bringing widespread rain and cloudy skies across much of the Philippines on Wednesday, with Luzon and Visayas bearing the brunt of the wet weather. The monsoon's strength is being amplified by Tropical Storm Saudel, which is currently located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) but is close enough to intensify rainfall across northern and western parts of the country, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
While Mindanao remains largely shielded from the heaviest rains, residents across all three major island groups are advised to remain alert as conditions can shift quickly during the active monsoon season.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary weather driver today is the southwest monsoon, known locally as the habagat. This is a seasonal wind pattern that blows moist air from the southwest across the Philippine archipelago, typically between June and September. When it is active, it brings sustained cloudiness, heavy rainfall, and rough seas — particularly to western-facing coastlines and areas in Luzon and Visayas. The habagat intensifies when a tropical cyclone is present west of the Philippines, as the storm's circulation essentially "pumps" more moisture and energy into the monsoon flow.
That amplifying factor is present today. Tropical Storm Saudel (formerly "Obet"), carrying maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near its center and gusts of up to 80 km/h, is located approximately 560 kilometers west of Itbayat, Batanes, as of 5:00 AM today. It is moving northeastward at 15 km/h and is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. PAGASA notes that while Saudel does not pose a direct landfall threat at this time, its proximity is enhancing the southwest monsoon's intensity across Luzon and Visayas.
"Tropical Storm Saudel is located 560 km west of Itbayat, Batanes, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h, moving northeastward at 15 km/h." — PAGASA, as of 5:00 AM, September 2, 2026
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes — The northernmost island group of the Philippines will experience occasional rains due to the southwest monsoon. Residents should prepare for intermittent wet spells throughout the day.
Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) — These areas will see cloudy skies with scattered rains and possible thunderstorms, according to PAGASA. The presence of moderate to heavy rainfall spells means that residents in low-lying areas and those near rivers and mountain slopes should remain watchful for potential flooding and landslides.
Metro Manila and surrounding provinces (including Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, and nearby areas) — Expect rainy conditions with the possibility of severe thunderstorms. PAGASA specifically flags the risk of severe thunderstorms for this area, which can mean intense, short-duration rainfall, strong winds, and lightning. Commuters and outdoor workers in the metro should plan accordingly.
Palawan, Romblon, and other western Luzon areas — PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains driven by the southwest monsoon. Coastal communities on the western-facing shorelines should be especially cautious given the elevated sea conditions.
Visayas
The entire Visayas region — including the Western, Central, and Eastern Visayas — will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and possible thunderstorms as the southwest monsoon continues to affect the area. The possibility of moderate to heavy rain spells remains, and residents in flood-prone and landslide-susceptible communities should remain alert.
Mindanao
Mindanao is less directly affected by the southwest monsoon today. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms across most of the island group. While conditions are generally more favorable compared to Luzon and Visayas, isolated thunderstorms can still produce sudden, intense rainfall in localized areas. Residents should not be complacent, particularly in areas with a history of flash flooding.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA advises the following wind and sea conditions for Wednesday:
Luzon and Visayas — Winds will be moderate to strong, blowing from the southwest, with sea conditions described as moderate to rough. Wave heights are not specified numerically for all areas, but rough seas are anticipated along the western coasts of Luzon and the Visayas.
Mindanao — Winds will be light to moderate, also from the southwest, with seas described as slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
PAGASA is urging fisherfolk and operators of small sea vessels to exercise caution, particularly in Luzon and Visayas waters where rough conditions are expected.
Decoding Today's Weather Warnings
It is important for readers to understand what each warning level actually means for their safety. While PAGASA has not issued tropical cyclone wind signals for Tropical Storm Saudel — as it remains outside PAR — the agency's forecast explicitly flags the risk of moderate to heavy rains and severe thunderstorms for parts of Luzon and Visayas. These conditions are associated with the active southwest monsoon enhanced by the nearby storm.
Rough sea conditions effectively serve as a gale-level concern for mariners in Luzon and Visayas coastal waters, meaning small vessels should avoid venturing out. For a full explanation of how PAGASA's warning systems work — from rainfall color codes to storm signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
The bottom line on today's warnings: if you are in Luzon or Visayas, the weather is genuinely hazardous. "Severe thunderstorms" means the kind of sudden, intense downpours that can cause flash flooding within minutes, topple trees, and produce dangerous lightning. "Moderate to rough seas" means small fishing boats should stay in port.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila, northern Luzon, or the Visayas today, leave earlier than usual and prepare for traffic disruptions caused by heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding. Carry an umbrella or raincoat, and avoid low-lying roads and underpasses that are prone to flooding during heavy downpours. Severe thunderstorms can reduce visibility significantly — extra caution is needed whether you are driving or riding public transport.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's advisory is clear: seas off Luzon and Visayas will be moderate to rough today due to the southwest monsoon and the influence of Tropical Storm Saudel. Small vessel operators — including bancas and fishing boats — are strongly advised to remain in port or in sheltered waters. Conditions off Mindanao are more manageable, with slight to moderate seas, but caution is still warranted as the southwest monsoon can intensify quickly.
Farmers
Farmers in Luzon and Visayas should be alert to the risk of prolonged or heavy rainfall that could damage crops, cause soil erosion, or lead to waterlogging in low-lying fields. Those in the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley who farm on or near slopes should watch for signs of landslides. In Mindanao, agricultural conditions are more favorable today, but isolated showers are still possible.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents of school-age children in Luzon and Visayas should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions, as the combination of severe thunderstorm risk and rough weather could prompt local officials to act. Keep children indoors during lightning activity and avoid letting them cross flooded streets or drainage areas.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others who work outdoors — especially in Metro Manila and across Luzon and Visayas — should prepare for significant interruptions today. Seek shelter immediately if lightning begins, and avoid working near flood-prone areas, unstable structures, or exposed heights during strong winds associated with thunderstorms.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
Based on PAGASA observations recorded at the Science Garden station in Quezon City for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday:
- Maximum temperature: 32.1°C (recorded at 12:00 PM)
- Minimum temperature: 27.8°C (recorded at 2:00 AM)
- Maximum relative humidity: 100%
- Minimum relative humidity: 63% (recorded at 12:00 PM)
High humidity levels — particularly the maximum reaching 100% — reflect the saturated atmospheric conditions typical of an active southwest monsoon period. Even on days that appear calm, the air feels heavy and oppressive. Outdoor workers and those with respiratory conditions should take note that heat stress can still occur in humid, partly cloudy conditions, even without direct sunlight.
Tides and Astronomical Information
For Manila Bay, courtesy of NAMRIA, high and low tides are expected today, with sunrise at approximately 5:41 AM and sunset at 6:05 PM. The moon rises at 9:30 AM and sets at 8:57 PM, with an illumination of 70%, indicating a nearly full moon. Coastal communities should take note of tidal conditions, particularly when combined with rough wave activity driven by the southwest monsoon.
Bottom Line
If you live in Luzon or Visayas, today is a day to stay prepared and stay informed. The southwest monsoon, strengthened by nearby Tropical Storm Saudel outside PAR, is bringing heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and rough seas to most of the country's northern and central regions. Avoid unnecessary travel during peak rainfall, keep off rough coastal waters if you operate a small vessel, and monitor local government advisories for class or work suspensions. Mindanao will see relatively lighter conditions but remains subject to isolated thunderstorms.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.