QUEZON CITY, July 2, 2026 — The Southwest Monsoon, known locally as the habagat, is delivering widespread rain and cloudy conditions to the western portions of the Philippines on Thursday, as the country's weather authority PAGASA issued its 4:00 AM bulletin valid until 4:00 AM on July 3, 2026. Flash floods and landslides are possible in the most exposed areas, and rough coastal waters are making conditions dangerous for small boat operators along the country's western seaboard.
Adding to the atmospheric picture, Tropical Depression Henry — formerly a named storm — has exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of 3:00 AM today, now located approximately 610 kilometers west of Bacnotan, La Union. While it is no longer within Philippine waters, the system's proximity continues to intensify the habagat, amplifying the rain-bearing winds sweeping across the country's western coast.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The Southwest Monsoon, or habagat, is the seasonal wind pattern that sweeps moisture-laden air from the southwest across the Philippines, typically from June through September. When a tropical cyclone sits to the west or northwest of the country — as Tropical Depression Henry does today — it acts like a pump, accelerating those winds and funneling even more moisture into western Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The result is prolonged, heavy rainfall that can trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and low-lying coastal areas.
PAGASA confirmed in its synopsis that the Southwest Monsoon is currently affecting the western sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao — a broad swath of the country that residents and travelers in those areas should be monitoring closely throughout the day.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Palawan and Occidental Mindoro are bearing the brunt of the habagat today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over these provinces, with flash floods and landslides possible during severe thunderstorms. Residents in low-lying coastal communities and hilly terrain in both provinces should remain alert and avoid flood-prone areas.
The rest of Luzon — including Metro Manila — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, also driven by the Southwest Monsoon. Metro Manila specifically is forecast to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate rain showers or thunderstorms, with flash floods or landslides possible during localized severe thunderstorm events. Commuters in the capital should prepare for rain at any point during the day.
Visayas
The western sections of the Visayas are under the direct influence of the habagat, with cloudy skies and scattered rain showers or thunderstorms forecast. Flash floods and landslides remain possible in areas experiencing severe thunderstorms. Residents in coastal and mountainous barangays across the region should stay informed about local conditions and be prepared to move to higher ground if flooding threatens.
The rest of the Visayas can expect partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms throughout the day.
Mindanao
Similar to Visayas, the western portions of Mindanao will experience the stronger effects of the Southwest Monsoon, with cloudy skies and scattered rain showers or thunderstorms. Flash floods and landslides are listed as possible hazards during severe thunderstorms. The rest of Mindanao is forecast to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA is warning of hazardous sea conditions along the country's western coastline. Winds over the western sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are blowing from the southwest and are described as moderate to strong, producing moderate to rough seas with wave heights that make navigation dangerous for small vessels.
For the rest of the country, winds are generally light to moderate, coming from the southeast. Coastal waters in these areas range from slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters — still conditions that small boat operators should factor into their plans before heading out.
The western sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao should see moderate to strong winds from the southwest, with rough seas. Fishers and small vessel operators in these areas are strongly advised to remain in port or in safe harbor today.
Decoding the Warnings: What They Mean for You
PAGASA's bulletin for July 2 does not carry tropical cyclone wind signals, as Tropical Depression Henry has already exited PAR. However, the active weather hazards — flash flood potential and landslide risk from the Southwest Monsoon — carry real consequences for communities in affected areas. If you are in Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, or the western portions of Visayas and Mindanao, these are not abstract forecasts: heavy, prolonged rain during thunderstorms can rapidly fill rivers, flood low-lying barangays, and destabilize hillsides within minutes.
If you want to understand how PAGASA structures its various weather warnings — from rainfall color-coded alerts to storm signals — you can read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a full breakdown of what each level means and when to act.
The key rule today: if you hear thunder, take shelter immediately and stay away from rivers, creeks, and drainage canals. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads or bridges, even in a vehicle.
What It Means for You
Commuters
Metro Manila and the surrounding regions should brace for rain at unpredictable intervals throughout Thursday. Bring a rain jacket or umbrella, and build extra travel time into your schedule. Watch for flooded underpasses and streets after intense downpours. If local flooding cuts off your usual route, do not wade through floodwaters — the depth and current can be deceptive.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Today is a dangerous day to be on the water along the western coast. PAGASA reports moderate to rough seas for the western sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, with moderate to strong southwest winds. Small bancas and fishing boats should stay in port. Even in areas with slight to moderate seas, conditions can deteriorate quickly given the active monsoon. If you are already at sea, return to the nearest safe harbor as soon as possible.
Farmers
Farmers in Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, and the western Visayas and Mindanao should secure loose equipment and be alert for flash flooding in low-lying fields and orchards. Those in hillside farms should watch for signs of soil erosion or runoff that could signal a landslide risk. Farmers in other regions experiencing isolated showers should use the calmer windows between rain events to complete urgent fieldwork.
Students and Parents
School officials and parents in Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, and the western Visayas and Mindanao should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions, which are typically issued based on local flooding and safety conditions — not solely on PAGASA forecasts. Ensure children have rain gear and that school routes are clear of flooding before allowing them to travel.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Crews
Workers exposed to the elements in habagat-affected areas — particularly those in elevated or mountainous locations — should suspend operations during periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Lightning is a serious hazard during thunderstorm activity. Seek sturdy shelter away from trees and metal structures when thunderstorms develop.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 38.2°C at 1:00 PM yesterday, with a minimum of 24.8°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 90% at 5:00 AM and dropped to a minimum of 56% at 12:00 noon. Despite the rainy conditions in many parts of the country, temperatures in Metro Manila and other areas not directly under heavy monsoon clouds may still climb significantly during midday, so residents should stay hydrated and avoid prolonged outdoor exposure during peak afternoon hours.
Sunrise, Sunset, and Tides (Metro Manila)
For Metro Manila on July 2, 2026: Sunrise is at 5:31 AM and sunset at 6:20 PM. Moonrise is at 8:22 PM and moonset at 7:10 AM. The moon is at 98% illumination — nearly full — which may contribute to higher-than-normal tidal conditions along low-lying coastal communities. Residents near Manila Bay and other coastal areas should be aware of potential tidal flooding, especially during high tide windows.
Bottom Line: If you are in Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, or the western portions of Visayas and Mindanao, today's Southwest Monsoon brings a genuine risk of flash floods and landslides — stay away from rivers and flood-prone areas, and do not go to sea. Everyone else should carry rain gear and expect scattered showers throughout the day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.