QUEZON CITY — The southwest monsoon, known locally as "habagat," is bearing down on the Philippines on Friday, August 14, 2026, bringing heavy rains, thunderstorms, and the serious risk of flash floods and landslides to large parts of Luzon and the western portion of the Visayas. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued the forecast at 4:00 AM Friday, valid through 4:00 AM Saturday, August 15.
Much of the country's most densely populated regions — including Metro Manila — are under the monsoon's direct influence today, making this a forecast that affects tens of millions of Filipinos from their morning commute through the end of the workday.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The chief culprit behind Friday's widespread rainfall is the southwest monsoon, or habagat. This is the seasonal wind system that blows from the southwest across the Philippine archipelago roughly from June through September each year. When habagat is active and strengthened, it pushes large volumes of warm, moisture-laden air from the West Philippine Sea and the South China Sea directly into Luzon and the western flanks of the Visayas. The result is persistent, sometimes intense rainfall that can last for hours and accumulate quickly — especially in mountainous terrain — creating the conditions for flash floods and landslides.
According to PAGASA, the southwest monsoon is currently affecting Luzon and the western section of Visayas. The rest of the country — including most of Mindanao and the eastern Visayas — is experiencing a separate pattern driven by localized thunderstorms, which can still produce brief but intense downpours.
Region-by-Region Forecast: August 14, 2026
Luzon
Conditions across Luzon vary in intensity today but all areas carry some level of rain risk.
Zambales and Bataan are forecast to receive occasional rains — a somewhat lighter condition relative to the rest of Luzon, but still carrying the possibility of flash floods or landslides where soils are already saturated from previous rainfall.
Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, the rest of Central Luzon, and Antique face the most significant conditions of the day: cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. PAGASA warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains across all these areas. For Metro Manila commuters, this means the risk of flooded roads and streets throughout the day. For communities in the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley — where steep terrain amplifies landslide risk — residents in vulnerable areas must remain on high alert.
The rest of Luzon — areas not specifically mentioned above — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. Flash floods or landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes, PAGASA notes.
Visayas
The southwest monsoon's reach extends into the western Visayas, directly affecting Antique, Aklan, and Capiz. Antique is grouped with the more severely affected areas and faces scattered rains and thunderstorms with flash flood and landslide risk. Aklan and Capiz are expected to see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, with similar hazard potential during severe thunderstorms.
The remainder of the Visayas — including the Eastern Visayas, Cebu, Bohol, and other islands beyond the monsoon's direct western track — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized thunderstorms. Flash floods or landslides are still possible in these areas during severe storm episodes.
Mindanao
Mindanao is outside the direct path of the southwest monsoon today, but residents should not dismiss the forecast entirely. PAGASA identifies localized thunderstorms as the driver of weather across the rest of the country, which includes Mindanao. Expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, with the possibility of flash floods or landslides during any severe thunderstorm that develops during the day.
Sea and Coastal Conditions: Warning for Fisherfolk and Mariners
Coastal waters today present significant hazards, particularly in northern and western Luzon.
Northern and western Luzon coastal waters are forecast to be moderate to rough, with wave heights reaching 2.1 to 2.8 meters. Winds in these areas are moderate to strong, blowing from the southwest — a direct consequence of the strengthened habagat. These are dangerous conditions for small sea vessels.
The rest of Luzon's coastal waters will be slight to moderate, with waves of 1.2 to 2.5 meters and light to moderate southwest winds.
Visayas and Mindanao coastal waters are forecast at slight to moderate, with waves of 0.6 to 1.8 meters and light to moderate south to southwest winds — generally manageable but still requiring caution for smaller watercraft.
Decoding the Hazard Warnings
PAGASA's forecast for today identifies two key hazards: flash floods and landslides. These are not abstract risks — they are specific consequences that PAGASA has flagged for areas receiving moderate to heavy rainfall, particularly where terrain is steep or drainage systems are already stressed.
A flash flood can develop within minutes to hours of intense rainfall, especially in low-lying areas, near river banks, and in urban zones with poor drainage. A landslide risk is elevated in mountainous regions — such as the Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, and parts of MIMAROPA — where heavy rain saturates hillside soils rapidly.
Understanding how PAGASA issues and escalates its warnings is important for every Filipino household. For a plain-language explainer on what each warning level means and what actions to take, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
No tropical cyclone wind signals are active in today's bulletin. The primary threat today is cumulative rainfall from the sustained southwest monsoon, not a single storm system.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters — Metro Manila and Luzon Urban Centers
Scattered rains and thunderstorms are forecast throughout the day across Metro Manila and much of Luzon. Expect flooding on low-lying streets and major thoroughfares, particularly during or after heavy thunderstorm episodes. Allow extra travel time, avoid flood-prone underpasses and roads, and keep an eye on local government social media pages for real-time road condition updates. If you work in CALABARZON, the Ilocos Region, or CAR, similar conditions apply — plan your route accordingly.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
Today is not a safe day to venture into the waters off northern and western Luzon. Waves of 2.1 to 2.8 meters combined with strong southwest winds make conditions genuinely dangerous for small and medium-sized vessels. PAGASA's data strongly supports staying ashore in these areas. Even in the Visayas and Mindanao, where seas are lighter, isolated thunderstorms can produce sudden squalls — exercise caution and monitor conditions before departure.
Farmers
Heavy rainfall in the Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon carries the risk of farm inundation, crop damage, and soil erosion. Farmers in low-lying areas should check drainage around fields and take precautionary steps to protect standing crops. In upland farming communities within the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley, landslide risk is an added concern on steep cultivated slopes.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents sending children to school in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, CAR, and the Ilocos Region should monitor for class suspension announcements from local government units throughout the morning and into the afternoon. The scattered rains and thunderstorm pattern means conditions can shift quickly during school hours. Keep emergency contact numbers accessible.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in construction, infrastructure, and other outdoor industries in Luzon should implement rain safety protocols today. Lightning risk is elevated in areas forecast to experience thunderstorms. Supervisors should be prepared to halt outdoor activities during active thunderstorm episodes and ensure workers have safe shelter available on site.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 27.6°C at 10:00 AM and a minimum of 25.5°C at 5:00 AM for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM Thursday, August 13. Relative humidity ranged from 83% to 97%, reflecting the moisture-saturated atmosphere that the southwest monsoon brings. The high humidity combined with overcast skies means Metro Manila and surrounding areas will feel warm and sticky, though not at extreme heat-index levels. Heat stress is less of a concern today than rain-related hazards.
Tides and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For Metro Manila, NAMRIA tidal predictions for Friday, August 14 show a high tide of 0.47 meters at 12:42 AM, a low of 0.46 meters at 2:08 AM, and a significant high of 1.45 meters at 10:51 AM, followed by a low of 0.10 meters at 6:43 PM. Sunrise is at 5:42 AM and sunset at 6:20 PM. The moon is only 4% illuminated today — a near-new moon phase — with moonrise at 6:54 AM and moonset at 7:31 PM. The combination of high tide timing and heavy rainfall during the late morning period may increase urban flooding risk in coastal and low-lying areas of Metro Manila during that window.
Bottom line: If you are in Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, CAR, Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Central Luzon, or Antique, the single most important thing you can do today is stay away from flood-prone and landslide-risk areas, and avoid travel during active thunderstorm episodes. The southwest monsoon is producing serious rain today — treat the hazard warnings as real and prepare accordingly.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph