MANILA, August 22, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is asserting its grip over the northern half of the country this Saturday, drenching parts of Luzon with scattered rains and thunderstorms and raising the risk of flash floods and landslides in several provinces, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned in its 4:00 AM forecast bulletin.
While the Visayas and Mindanao remain largely outside the monsoon's direct reach today, localized thunderstorms could still produce sudden, intense downpours anywhere in the country. Residents and travelers nationwide are advised to stay weather-aware throughout the day.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The primary weather engine today is the southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat. This is the seasonal wind system that blows moist air from the southwestern seas toward the Philippine landmass during the rainy season, typically from June through September. When this wind stream is active and strong — as PAGASA confirms it is today — it pushes heavy moisture-laden air against the western slopes of Luzon's mountain ranges, forcing that air upward, cooling it rapidly, and producing sustained cloudiness, rain, and thunderstorms across northern and central parts of the country.
For the rest of the Philippines outside the monsoon's direct path, localized thunderstorms — weather systems that develop independently due to daytime heating of the land — are the main rain-producing mechanism today.
PAGASA also reports two tropical cyclones currently located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Typhoon Saudel (2618), with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h and gusts up to 160 km/h, is situated approximately 2,710 kilometers east of Northern Luzon and is moving northwestward. A separate tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gusts up to 55 km/h, is located about 1,195 kilometers east of Northeastern Mindanao and is moving westward. Neither system is currently inside PAR or directly affecting Philippine weather, according to PAGASA's 3:00 AM data. Filipinos should continue monitoring updates as the tropical depression's westward movement warrants attention in coming days.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The heaviest weather is concentrated in the western and northern portions of Luzon. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms — the most significant weather category in today's bulletin — for the following areas:
- Ilocos Region (Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan)
- Cordillera Administrative Region (Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Abra, Apayao)
- Batanes
- Cagayan
- Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, and Pampanga
These areas face the highest risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall, PAGASA warns. Mountainous terrain in the Cordillera and steep slopes in Batanes and Cagayan amplify this risk considerably.
A step down in intensity covers Metro Manila, CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), the rest of Cagayan Valley (Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino), and the rest of Central Luzon (Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora). These areas are forecast to have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. While conditions are generally less continuous than in the northwest, PAGASA flags that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes. Metro Manila commuters should not be lulled by morning breaks in the clouds — a heavy thunderstorm can develop quickly.
Winds across the northern and western sections of Luzon will blow from the south to southwest at moderate to strong intensity. Coastal waters off these sections are expected to be moderate to rough, with wave heights between 1.5 and 3.4 meters — conditions that pose a serious hazard to small seacraft.
Visayas
The Visayas — including Eastern, Western, and Central Visayas — falls under the "rest of the country" designation in today's PAGASA bulletin. Residents can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven by localized convective activity rather than the monsoon itself. While widespread, prolonged rain is not anticipated, any thunderstorm that does develop can produce intense, brief downpours capable of causing localized flash flooding. Flash flood or landslide risk is flagged specifically during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Winds in the Visayas will be light to moderate, blowing from the south to southwest. Coastal waters are forecast to be slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters — generally manageable for most vessels, though small bancas should exercise caution.
Mindanao
Mindanao similarly falls under the general "rest of the country" forecast — partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms caused by localized thunderstorms. The same flash flood and landslide caution applies during any intense thunderstorm activity. Despite the relatively benign general forecast, Mindanao residents should note that the tropical depression located approximately 1,195 km east of Northeastern Mindanao is moving westward. PAGASA has not placed this system inside PAR or issued any direct warning for Mindanao, but the system's track bears watching in subsequent bulletins.
Winds over Mindanao are light to moderate, with coastal seas in the slight to moderate range, wave heights between 0.6 and 2.1 meters.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Level Means
PAGASA's bulletin does not issue a color-coded rainfall warning or tropical cyclone wind signal for any area in today's forecast — both cyclones remain outside PAR. However, the agency explicitly flags the risk of flash floods and landslides for areas under the southwest monsoon and for any area experiencing a severe thunderstorm. This is a consequence-based hazard note, not a formal warning signal, but it carries real urgency.
In plain terms: if you live in a low-lying area near a river, creek, or estero, or on or near a hillside in any of the affected Luzon provinces, you should have a plan ready if water levels rise or if soil begins to loosen. For a full explanation of how Philippine weather warnings work — including rainfall warning colors and storm signal numbers — see our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
The moderate-to-rough coastal water advisory for the northern and western sections of Luzon (waves 1.5 to 3.4 meters) is a genuine hazard for small and even medium-sized vessels. PAGASA's standard guidance is that small boats should not venture into moderate-to-rough seas.
What It Means for You
Commuters in Metro Manila and Luzon
Metro Manila and Central Luzon are under the isolated rainshower and thunderstorm forecast, which means conditions can shift rapidly. Allow extra travel time, keep an umbrella or rain gear handy, and avoid underpasses or low-lying roads during or after a thunderstorm. In the more heavily affected provinces — Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac — drivers on mountain roads and those crossing rivers should exercise heightened caution throughout the day.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
If you operate a small fishing vessel off the northern or western coast of Luzon, today's forecast warrants serious consideration before heading out. Coastal waters in those areas are expected to be moderate to rough, with wave heights up to 3.4 meters — conditions that can swamp or capsize small bancas. PAGASA's data strongly suggests staying ashore today if you are in those waters. Fisherfolk in the Visayas and Mindanao face generally lighter seas, but should remain alert to fast-developing thunderstorms that can whip up localized wave action quickly.
Farmers
Farmers in the Ilocos Region, Cordillera, and Cagayan face the most significant rainfall today. Heavy rains can cause soil erosion, flooding of low-lying farmland, and damage to standing crops. Secure loose materials and assess drainage conditions around fields. Farmers elsewhere in Luzon and across the Visayas and Mindanao should be prepared for occasional heavy showers from thunderstorms, which can be beneficial for dry areas but damaging if drainage is poor.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Classes in provinces under the heaviest monsoon-driven rains — particularly in the Ilocos Region, Cordillera, Cagayan, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, and Pampanga — may be affected if conditions deteriorate. Parents and school officials should monitor local government announcements on class suspensions, which are decided at the local level and not by PAGASA. Given that August 22 is a Saturday, the class disruption concern is reduced, but community and weekend activities in affected areas should be assessed carefully.
Outdoor Workers and Event Organizers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and anyone working outdoors in affected Luzon provinces should schedule heavy tasks for morning hours if possible, as thunderstorms often intensify in the afternoon when daytime heating peaks. Outdoor events in Northern and Central Luzon should have contingency plans, given the scattered rain and thunderstorm outlook. Even in the Visayas and Mindanao, where conditions are more benign, afternoon thunderstorms can develop quickly.
Temperature and Heat Outlook
PAGASA recorded temperature extremes at its Science Garden station in Diliman, Quezon City for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on August 21, 2026. The maximum temperature reached 31.9°C at 1:00 PM, while the minimum was 26.9°C at 8:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 95% to a low of 63%. No heat index warning is in effect in today's bulletin. The combination of high humidity and temperatures in the low 30s can still feel oppressive even without a formal heat advisory, so staying hydrated and avoiding prolonged sun exposure remains advisable, particularly during brief fair-weather windows between rain episodes.
Tidal Information for Manila Bay
For reference, NAMRIA tidal predictions for Manila Bay show a high tide of 1.08 meters at 4:15 AM and a low tide of 0.15 meters at 3:02 PM today, August 22. Coastal communities around Manila Bay should factor tidal conditions into their preparedness, particularly since rain-swollen rivers draining into the bay can cause flooding even at moderate tide levels.
Bottom Line: If you are in Northern or Central Luzon today — especially in the Ilocos Region, Cordillera, Cagayan, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, or Pampanga — take the flash flood and landslide risk seriously and avoid rivers, creeks, and hillside areas during rain. Fisherfolk off the northern and western Luzon coast should stay ashore given rough seas. The rest of the country should be ready for sudden thunderstorms at any time of day.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.