MANILA, August 10, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is bearing down on Luzon this Monday, bringing widespread heavy rainfall to multiple provinces and raising the risk of flooding, landslides, and dangerous road conditions across the western and northern portions of the country's main island. PAGASA issued Weather Advisory No. 34 at 5:00 AM today, outlining a three-day rainfall outlook that places several provinces under serious watch.
For the millions of Filipinos living along the western coast of Luzon and in the Cordillera highlands, this is a day to exercise caution — check road conditions before traveling, keep children home from outdoor activities if possible, and stay tuned to updates from your local government and PAGASA.
What Is Driving This Weather?
The culprit today is the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat. This is the seasonal wind system that blows moist air from the South China Sea across the western portions of the Philippines roughly from June through September each year. When habagat strengthens or interacts with other weather features, it funnels enormous amounts of moisture onto the landmass — particularly the western slopes of mountain ranges like the Cordillera and the Zambales Mountains — producing persistent, heavy rainfall that can last for days rather than hours.
Unlike a typhoon, the southwest monsoon does not have a single center or eye. It is a broad, sustained pattern of wind and moisture that can drench communities even when the sky overhead looks deceptively overcast rather than stormy. This makes it easy to underestimate — but the rainfall totals it produces can be just as dangerous.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon — The Hardest Hit
Luzon is carrying the full weight of today's southwest monsoon surge. According to PAGASA's advisory, the forecast breaks down across the next three days as follows:
Today (August 10): The most severe rainfall — exceeding 200 millimeters — is forecast over Benguet and its neighboring highland areas. This is an exceptionally high amount; for context, 200 mm in a single day is enough to overwhelm drainage systems, trigger landslides on steep slopes, and cause rivers to rise rapidly. Widespread flooding and landslides are explicitly flagged as concerns in this zone.
Provinces forecast to receive 100 to 200 millimeters of rainfall today include Zambales, Bataan, and parts of the greater northern Luzon area. This range still carries significant flood and landslide potential, especially in low-lying communities and areas near waterways.
Lighter but still notable rainfall — roughly 50 to 100 millimeters — is expected over Ilocos Sur and adjacent localities, with local thunderstorms possible.
Tomorrow (August 11): The rainfall footprint is expected to broaden. Benguet remains in the heaviest rain zone. Zambales, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, and Pampanga are forecast to receive moderate to heavy rainfall, with local thunderstorms possible in several of these areas. Conditions are not expected to improve significantly overnight.
Day 3 (August 12): The monsoon is expected to persist, with continued rain potential across the same general area. Zambales, Bataan, and surrounding provinces remain in the forecast zone, and cumulative rainfall by this point could significantly worsen flooding in areas that have already absorbed heavy rain over the previous two days.
PAGASA specifically cautions that forecast rainfall may be higher in mountainous and elevated areas, and that impacts in some areas may be worsened by significant antecedent rainfall — meaning communities that have already experienced recent wet weather are at heightened risk even from moderate additional rain.
Visayas and Mindanao
The available advisory data from PAGASA's Weather Advisory No. 34 focuses primarily on the southwest monsoon's impact on Luzon. Residents of the Visayas and Mindanao should continue to monitor PAGASA's regional advisories and updates, as PAGASA Regional Services Divisions are authorized to issue their own Heavy Rainfall Warnings, Thunderstorm Advisories, and other severe weather information specific to their areas of responsibility. Check pagasa.dost.gov.ph for the latest bulletins covering your region.
Decoding the Warnings: What Do These Rainfall Levels Actually Mean?
PAGASA's advisory uses rainfall volume thresholds — measured in millimeters over a 24-hour period — to communicate risk. Here is what those numbers mean in plain terms for the provinces affected today:
More than 200 mm (Benguet and highlands today): This is an extreme rainfall amount. Rivers can overflow rapidly, landslides become highly probable on slopes and hillsides, and roads — particularly mountain roads — can be rendered impassable or structurally compromised. If you are in or planning to travel through Benguet or its neighboring highland municipalities today, that trip should be reconsidered entirely unless absolutely necessary.
100 to 200 mm (Zambales, Bataan, and others): This is heavy rainfall that poses a serious flooding threat to low-lying areas and communities near rivers and creeks. Outdoor work, travel through flood-prone routes, and any activities near bodies of water carry elevated risk.
50 to 100 mm (Ilocos Sur and nearby areas): Moderate to heavy rainfall with potential for localized flooding, particularly in urban areas with poor drainage, and for soil saturation on slopes.
For a full explanation of how PAGASA structures its weather warnings — including rainfall color codes, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat index categories — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
PAGASA has also advised that public disaster risk reduction and management offices (DRRMOs) in affected areas have been directed to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. If your local DRRMO issues an evacuation advisory or pre-emptive evacuation order, follow it immediately.
What This Means for You
Commuters and Motorists
If your daily route passes through Benguet, the Cordillera highlands, Zambales, Bataan, or the western Pangasinan and La Union coastlines, expect significantly disrupted road conditions today and tomorrow. Mountain passes — including those connecting Baguio City to the lowlands — are at elevated risk of rockfalls and road washouts when rainfall exceeds 200 mm. Leave earlier than usual, monitor traffic and road condition reports from your local government, and have an alternative plan if your primary route becomes impassable. Avoid crossing flooded roads or bridges; the depth and current beneath floodwaters are impossible to gauge safely from the surface.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
The southwest monsoon produces strong, sustained winds and rough seas along the western coast of Luzon — the South China Sea side. Fisherfolk operating small bancas or motorized outriggers along the western Ilocos, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan coastlines should avoid venturing out to sea today. Even if conditions appear manageable at the shoreline, open-water conditions can deteriorate quickly under monsoon winds. Check with your local coast guard station before any maritime activity.
Farmers and Agricultural Workers
For farmers in Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and the Cordillera region, the combination of extreme rainfall today and continued heavy rain through Wednesday poses a direct threat to crops, irrigation infrastructure, and farm access roads. Terraced and hillside farms face landslide risk. Secure equipment and livestock where possible, and avoid working on steep or exposed slopes during peak rainfall hours. Farmers in La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, and Pampanga should prepare for waterlogged fields over the next two to three days.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Parents of children attending school in Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, and other heavily affected provinces should monitor suspension announcements from their local government units closely. Class suspensions in the Philippines are typically declared by local chief executives — mayors and governors — based on prevailing weather conditions. With rainfall exceeding 200 mm forecast for highland areas, suspensions are a realistic possibility. Do not send children to school through flooded streets or unstable roads.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in construction, agriculture, utilities, and other outdoor industries in the affected provinces face genuine safety risks today. Work site supervisors and project managers in Benguet, Zambales, and Bataan in particular should assess whether it is safe to proceed with outdoor operations given the extreme rainfall forecast. Excavated areas, unstable slopes, and scaffolding are especially vulnerable during heavy monsoon rain. Prioritize worker safety over project timelines.
When Is the Next PAGASA Update?
PAGASA has indicated that the next Weather Advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM today, August 10, 2026, unless significant changes in weather conditions warrant an earlier update. Readers in affected areas are strongly encouraged to check for that midday bulletin, as the monsoon situation can evolve through the day.
Bottom line: If you are in Benguet or the Cordillera highlands, do not travel today unless absolutely necessary — PAGASA is forecasting extreme rainfall exceeding 200 mm that makes floods and landslides highly likely. Residents of Zambales, Bataan, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, and Pampanga should stay alert through Wednesday as heavy monsoon rain is expected to continue. Follow your local DRRMO's instructions and do not ignore evacuation orders.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.