QUEZON CITY, July 21, 2026 — The southwest monsoon, known locally as the habagat, is making itself felt across much of the Philippines on Tuesday, bringing heavy rainfall, the threat of flash floods and landslides, and rough coastal waters to large portions of the western seaboard and southern Mindanao, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
While the rest of the country will see more manageable conditions, Filipinos living and working along the country's western coasts — from the Zamboanga Peninsula in Mindanao all the way up through Western Visayas and portions of Luzon — should prepare for a wet, potentially hazardous Tuesday.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
PAGASA identifies the southwest monsoon — or habagat — as the primary weather driver today. The habagat is a seasonal wind system that blows from the southwest, typically prevailing from June through September, and it funnels warm, moisture-laden air from the West Philippine Sea and surrounding ocean waters directly into the country's western-facing coasts and mountain ranges. When this moisture hits land — especially elevated terrain — it rises, cools, and condenses into heavy rainfall. That is why provinces on the western side of major mountain ranges, and areas in southern Mindanao exposed to the monsoon's path, tend to bear the brunt of habagat-driven rain events like today's.
According to PAGASA, the southwest monsoon is currently affecting Mindanao and the western sections of Luzon and Visayas, setting the stage for widespread wet conditions across those zones.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao
The heaviest rain in Mindanao is forecast for a broad swath of the south. PAGASA says the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Soccsksargen, Davao Region, Caraga, the Zamboanga Peninsula, and Cotabato can all expect cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon. Residents in these areas face a real risk of flash floods and landslides, particularly those living near riverbanks, low-lying coastal communities, and hillside or mountainous terrain. This is not a day to be caught unprepared in vulnerable areas of southern Mindanao.
Visayas
The Visayas group sees a split forecast. Western Visayas and Negros Island Region, directly exposed to the habagat, will experience cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. PAGASA flags these areas for the possibility of flash floods and landslides as well. Coastal waters off Western Visayas and Negros Island are expected to be rough, making sea travel particularly dangerous for small vessels.
The rest of the Visayas — areas not directly in the monsoon's path — will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, produced by localized thunderstorm activity rather than the monsoon itself. While these conditions are less severe, brief but intense downpours remain possible.
Luzon
Metro Manila and nearby provinces are not spared. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with rain showers or thunderstorms for the Zamboanga Peninsula's Luzon counterparts — specifically Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, and the rest of Metro Manila's surrounding region — with the southwest monsoon cited as the cause and flash floods and landslides listed as possible hazards in affected areas.
The rest of Luzon — areas not directly under the monsoon's immediate influence — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, attributed to localized thunderstorms. Flash floods or landslides remain possible even in these areas during heavy downpours.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA is forecasting rough seas off the coasts of Western Visayas and Negros Island Region, with winds coming from a southwesterly direction. The rest of Luzon's coastal waters are expected to have slight to moderate seas, also with south to southwest winds.
Rough seas pose a direct danger to small fishing boats and bancas. PAGASA's sea condition classifications are not abstract — "rough" means waves are high enough to swamp or overturn small watercraft, and mariners operating in those zones do so at serious risk.
Decoding the Warnings: What These Conditions Actually Mean
PAGASA's forecast explicitly warns of two hazards tied to today's heavy rainfall: flash floods and landslides. These are not distant possibilities — they are the direct, documented consequences of the kind of scattered-to-widespread thunderstorms the monsoon is generating across affected areas.
Flash floods occur with little to no warning, particularly in low-lying urban areas, near rivers, and in areas with poor drainage. Landslides are a heightened risk in mountainous and hilly provinces whenever sustained or intense rainfall saturates the soil. Both BARMM and the Zamboanga Peninsula — areas with significant upland communities — should treat today's forecast with particular seriousness.
For a full explanation of PAGASA's warning levels, rainfall color codes, and what each signal means for your safety, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
No tropical cyclone wind signals are currently in effect, according to the PAGASA bulletin. Today's hazards stem entirely from the monsoon and localized thunderstorm activity.
What This Means for You
Commuters
Expect rain-related traffic disruptions in Metro Manila and in cities across Western Visayas, the Zamboanga Peninsula, and parts of Mindanao. Leave earlier than usual, allow extra travel time, and check for road closures or flooding alerts from your local government before heading out. Avoid underpasses and flood-prone streets during active downpours.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's rough-sea forecast for Western Visayas and Negros Island coastal waters is a direct advisory to stay ashore. Small vessels — bancas, outrigger boats — should not attempt to put to sea in these conditions. Even in areas with "slight to moderate" seas across the rest of Luzon, southwest winds can pick up quickly and conditions can deteriorate. Exercise caution and monitor updates before heading out.
Farmers
Farmers in Mindanao — particularly in BARMM, Davao Region, Soccsksargen, and Caraga — should secure crops and livestock ahead of potential flooding. The combination of scattered thunderstorms and monsoon-driven rainfall can produce sudden, localized flooding in low-lying agricultural land. Check farm drainage and avoid working in exposed upland areas where landslide risk is elevated.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Parents of children in schools across Western Visayas, Negros Island, and Mindanao's monsoon-affected regions should stay tuned for any class suspension announcements from local government units. Rain can intensify quickly in the afternoon hours. Make sure children have rain gear and that school pickup arrangements account for possible flooding on routes home.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers in open-air environments across all affected regions face elevated risk today. Those operating near slopes, riverbanks, or construction sites on hillsides should have clear evacuation protocols in place before starting work. Avoid heavy outdoor work during peak rainfall hours, typically in the late morning through early evening during monsoon conditions.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's Science Garden weather station in Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 35.5°C and a minimum of 25.7°C over the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on Monday. Relative humidity ranged from a maximum of 92% down to a minimum of 68%.
High humidity combined with warm temperatures can make the heat feel more oppressive than the thermometer reading suggests, even on a cloudy, rainy day. Outdoor workers and those without adequate ventilation should stay hydrated and take regular breaks.
Tides for Manila Bay
According to PAGASA's bulletin, high tide for Manila Bay today is recorded at 0.78 meters at 2:66 PM, with tide data courtesy of NAMRIA. Moonrise is at 11:41 AM. Coastal communities in low-lying areas of Manila Bay should be mindful of the combination of high tide and ongoing monsoon rainfall, which can worsen localized coastal flooding.
Bottom line: If you are in Western Visayas, Negros Island, the Zamboanga Peninsula, or southern Mindanao today, take the flash flood and landslide risk seriously — move away from riverbanks, avoid flood-prone roads, and do not attempt sea travel in rough coastal waters. Check your local government's official channels for any evacuation or suspension orders.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.