QUEZON CITY, August 12, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is keeping large parts of Luzon wet and stormy on Wednesday, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). Residents across Metro Manila and several Luzon provinces face scattered rain showers that could trigger flash floods and landslides, while a tropical depression far to the east remains outside Philippine territory and poses no immediate threat to the country.
PAGASA issued its weather bulletin as of 3:00 AM today, painting a picture of a nation split between the monsoon-battered north and west and a comparatively calmer south — though no part of the country is entirely free of rain risk today.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary culprit today is the southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat. This is the seasonal wind system that blows warm, moisture-laden air from the southwest across the archipelago during the mid-year months. When habagat is active, it funnels clouds and rainfall particularly into the western and northern sections of Luzon — including Metro Manila — and can sustain prolonged wet spells rather than the brief afternoon showers that many Filipinos associate with tropical rain. Think of it as a conveyor belt of ocean moisture pressing steadily against western Luzon's coastlines and mountain ranges, wringing out rainfall as it rises.
Separately, a tropical depression has been detected approximately 1,900 kilometers east of extreme northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. As of 3:00 AM today, it is moving east-northeastward and remains well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). PAGASA's data does not indicate any immediate threat to the Philippines from this system, but updates should be monitored closely as the day progresses.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Metro Manila and Key Luzon Provinces
Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Palawan, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro are all under the influence of the southwest monsoon today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for these areas. The primary hazards flagged by PAGASA are flash floods and landslides resulting from moderate to heavy rainfall. Residents in low-lying areas near rivers, as well as those in upland and mountainous communities — particularly in Benguet and Nueva Vizcaya — should take these warnings seriously and monitor local conditions throughout the day.
Rest of Luzon
Provinces not specifically listed above but falling within the broader Luzon region can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms. PAGASA attributes these conditions to the southwest monsoon as well, with possible flash floods and thunderstorm-related hazards remaining a concern even where rainfall is expected to be lighter and more intermittent.
Visayas
The Visayas will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday. PAGASA attributes the weather in this region to localized thunderstorm activity rather than the southwest monsoon directly. While conditions are generally less severe than in Luzon, residents and travelers should still be prepared for sudden, short-duration downpours — particularly in the afternoon and early evening, when convective thunderstorm activity typically peaks. Flash floods and severe thunderstorms remain possible hazards.
Mindanao
Mindanao likewise faces partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, also driven by localized thunderstorm activity, according to PAGASA. As in the Visayas, the hazards flagged are flash floods and severe thunderstorms — conditions that can develop quickly and with little warning. Residents throughout Mindanao are advised to keep an eye on local drainage and avoid flood-prone areas during and after heavy downpours.
Coastal and Sea Conditions
Mariners and coastal communities should take PAGASA's sea condition forecast seriously today, particularly along the northern and western coasts of Luzon.
- Northern and western Luzon seaboards: Winds are southwest and strong; coastal waters are described as rough to very rough, with wave heights of 2 to 4 meters. These are dangerous conditions for any small or medium-sized vessel.
- Rest of Luzon seaboards: Winds are light to moderate from the southwest; coastal waters range from slight to moderate (wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters).
- Visayas and Mindanao seaboards: Winds are light to moderate from the south to southwest; coastal waters are similarly slight to moderate (0.6 to 1.8 meters).
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Level Means for You
PAGASA's bulletin flags the risk of flash floods and landslides across affected areas in Luzon, and flash floods and severe thunderstorms across the Visayas and Mindanao. These are not abstract technical categories — they represent real, potentially life-threatening events that can unfold within minutes of heavy rainfall beginning. If you live near a river, creek, or steep slope, these warnings mean you should have a ready-to-go evacuation plan and keep communication lines open with local disaster risk reduction offices.
Not sure what the different warning levels and color-coded rainfall alerts mean? Read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a plain-language breakdown of what each level signals and what actions to take.
Regarding coastal conditions: "rough to very rough" seas with 2- to 4-meter waves in northern and western Luzon effectively make these waters off-limits for small fishing boats and bancas. Even experienced mariners should defer departure until conditions improve. Moderate seas elsewhere still warrant caution for smaller vessels.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila or any of the listed Luzon provinces today, expect wet roads and reduced visibility during rain episodes. Flooding on low-lying streets — especially underpasses and flood-prone thoroughfares — is a real possibility if rainfall becomes heavy. Allow extra travel time, avoid flooded roads, and follow updates from local government units.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's data is unambiguous for those along the northern and western Luzon coastlines: rough to very rough seas with waves of 2 to 4 meters make it unsafe to venture out. Small-boat operators in these areas should remain ashore today. Those in the Visayas, Mindanao, and the rest of Luzon face moderate seas but should still monitor conditions closely and exercise caution, particularly in the afternoon when thunderstorm activity may increase.
Farmers
Scattered to moderate rainfall across Luzon may be beneficial for some crops but also raises the risk of soil erosion and crop damage in areas prone to landslides or flooding. Farmers in Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, and other highland provinces should be especially cautious of landslide-prone slopes. In the Visayas and Mindanao, isolated thunderstorms can bring sudden strong winds that may damage crops and farm structures.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents sending children to school in Metro Manila and the listed Luzon provinces should prepare rain gear and check local school announcements throughout the morning, as conditions could deteriorate if rainfall intensifies. Schools in flood-prone barangays should be on alert for possible class suspensions issued by local governments.
Outdoor Workers and Construction
Those working outdoors in rain-affected areas — construction workers, delivery riders, market vendors — should take shelter immediately when thunder or lightning is detected. Thunderstorms flagged in PAGASA's forecast can bring sudden strong winds and lightning strikes with little advance warning.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA recorded temperature and humidity data for the 24-hour period ending at 6:00 PM yesterday at its Ninoy Aquino International Airport station in Paranaque, Quezon City. The minimum temperature recorded was 26.6°C at 7:00 AM, while relative humidity reached a minimum of 27% at 11:00 AM. While specific high temperatures for today are not separately itemized in the bulletin, the prevailing cloudy and rainy conditions across much of Luzon are likely to keep daytime temperatures relatively moderate compared to clear-sky days, offering some relief from recent heat. However, high humidity levels may make conditions feel oppressive even when temperatures are not at their peak.
The Tropical Depression: Watch But Don't Panic
For transparency, PAGASA's bulletin notes a tropical depression located 1,900 km east of extreme northern Luzon, with 55 km/h sustained winds and gusts to 70 km/h, moving east-northeastward at 0 km/h (essentially stationary at time of observation). This system is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is not currently influencing local weather. However, readers are encouraged to check subsequent PAGASA bulletins for any changes in the system's track or intensity.
Bottom Line
If you are in Metro Manila or the listed Luzon provinces today, treat this as a day for caution: avoid flood-prone areas, don't cross swollen waterways, and be ready to move to higher ground if your community is near a river or steep slope. Fisherfolk along northern and western Luzon should stay ashore — PAGASA's seas are rough to very rough. Everywhere else in the country, keep an umbrella handy and stay alert for sudden thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.