QUEZON CITY, November 10, 2026 — Much of the southern Philippines faces a risk of flash floods and landslides on Tuesday as scattered rains and thunderstorms affect Visayas and Mindanao, while the northeast monsoon brings cloud cover and rain to several provinces in Luzon. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM on November 10, 2026, with the bulletin valid until 4:00 AM on Wednesday, November 11.
A tropical cyclone — Typhoon Cempaka (formerly Samuel) — is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), located approximately 1,590 kilometers east-northeast of Northern Luzon. PAGASA says it poses no direct threat to the country at this time and continues to monitor its movement. Cempaka is packing maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h and gusts of up to 185 km/h, and is moving east-northeastward at 20 km/h — tracking away from Philippine territory.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two separate weather systems are at work across the Philippine archipelago today.
The northeast monsoon, known locally as the amihan, is a seasonal wind pattern that pushes cool, moisture-laden air from the northeast down through Luzon during the latter part of the year. It is responsible for the persistent cloudy skies, light to moderate rains, and northeasterly winds affecting Luzon today.
Meanwhile, the easterlies — winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean to the east — are influencing the rest of the country, particularly Visayas and Mindanao. When easterlies interact with local atmospheric conditions, they can trigger scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, which can cause flash flooding and landslides.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The northeast monsoon is making itself felt most strongly along the eastern seaboard of Luzon. Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte are under cloudy skies with rains today, and PAGASA warns that moderate to at times heavy rainfall in these provinces could trigger flash floods or landslides. Residents in low-lying areas and near hillsides in these provinces should remain on alert.
Cagayan Valley and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) can expect cloudy skies with light rains, with no significant hazardous impacts forecast for the period.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with only isolated light rains. No significant weather impacts are expected in the capital region today.
Visayas
Several provinces in the Visayas are under a more serious weather outlook today. Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, and Bohol are forecast to experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms driven by the easterlies. PAGASA warns that these conditions carry the risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Residents in these provinces — particularly those living near rivers, low-lying areas, or steep terrain — should take precautions and heed advisories from their local disaster risk reduction and management offices (LDRRMOs).
The rest of Visayas will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. While no significant impact is tagged for the broader region, isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible and can still produce localized flooding.
Mindanao
Caraga, Davao Region, Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Norte, and Camiguin are forecast to have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, all driven by the easterlies. As with the affected Visayas provinces, PAGASA flags the risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains. Communities in mountainous and riverside areas in these regions should exercise particular caution.
The rest of Mindanao can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, with possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorm events.
Decoding the Warnings
PAGASA has not raised any tropical cyclone wind signal over any part of the Philippines today, as Typhoon Cempaka remains well outside PAR and is moving away. However, the agency has flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides for several provinces due to moderate to heavy rains.
Flash flood and landslide risks are not standalone warning signals with numbered levels — they are hazard tags attached to forecasts when rainfall is expected to be heavy enough to overwhelm drainage systems or saturate slopes. If your province or municipality carries this tag in today's forecast, PAGASA is telling you that dangerous conditions are possible even without a formal storm signal in place. For a full explanation of how PAGASA's warning system works — including rainfall color-coded warnings and storm signals — see how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
If you are in Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Caraga, Davao Region, Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Norte, or Camiguin, treat this forecast seriously. Heavy rain can arrive quickly and without much warning in these situations.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Winds and sea states vary significantly by area today, and PAGASA's forecast carries important implications for anyone at sea or planning to travel by boat.
Northern Luzon faces the most dangerous maritime conditions, with moderate to strong northeast winds and moderate to rough coastal waters, with wave heights of 2.1 to 4.5 meters. These are hazardous conditions for small vessels and even medium-sized craft, and mariners in this area should seriously consider delaying sailings.
The eastern sections of Central and Southern Luzon also face moderate to strong northeast winds, with coastal waters described as moderate to rough and waves reaching 2.1 to 3.4 meters. Caution is strongly advised for all watercraft in these waters.
Visayas and the rest of Luzon will experience light to moderate northeast winds, with coastal waters classified as slight to moderate and wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters. Conditions are more manageable but small boats should still exercise caution.
Mindanao sees light to moderate east to northeast winds, with coastal waters ranging from slight to moderate and wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila and most of Luzon today, only isolated light rains are expected — carry an umbrella as a precaution, but no major disruptions are forecast. However, if you live or work in Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, or any of the flagged Visayas and Mindanao provinces, be prepared for heavier rain and the possibility of flooded roads and reduced visibility during thunderstorms. Build extra travel time into your schedule and avoid crossing flooded streets.
Fisherfolk and Small Boat Operators
PAGASA's forecast flags caution for those operating off Northern Luzon and the eastern coasts of Central and Southern Luzon. Waves of up to 4.5 meters off Northern Luzon are dangerous for most small and medium vessels. Do not set out to sea in these areas unless your vessel is rated for these sea states and you have confirmed updated conditions. Even in Visayas and Mindanao, where conditions are lighter, isolated thunderstorms can create sudden squalls — stay alert and monitor PAGASA updates before and during any voyage.
Farmers
Farmers in Caraga, Davao Region, Bohol, Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte should prepare for the possibility of moderate to heavy rain today. Secure equipment and harvested crops, check drainage in fields, and monitor water levels in irrigation canals and nearby rivers. Flash flooding can damage crops quickly once it sets in.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Classes in Metro Manila and most of Luzon should proceed normally barring any local government announcements, as only light and isolated rains are forecast for those areas. However, parents and school administrators in the provinces facing flash flood and landslide risks — particularly in Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Bohol, and the Caraga and Davao regions — should monitor local LDRRMO and DepEd advisories closely. Heavy rain and rough terrain can make school travel hazardous quickly.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, utility crews, and others working outdoors in the affected Visayas and Mindanao provinces and in eastern Luzon should take shelter immediately when thunder is heard or lightning is spotted — do not wait for the rain to worsen. Employers in these areas should have contingency plans in place for suspending outdoor work during severe thunderstorms.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 31.7°C at 1:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 24.1°C at 4:30 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 91% at 6:00 AM and dropped to a minimum of 52% at 3:00 PM yesterday. These figures reflect the conditions recorded over the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on November 9, 2026, at the Quezon City station.
Astronomical and Tidal Information for Metro Manila
For those in and around Manila Bay, today's tidal schedule shows a high tide of 1.08 meters at 9:58 PM — the highest of the day. Low tides are expected at 5:28 AM and 1:50 PM. Sunrise is at 5:55 AM and sunset at 5:25 PM. The moon is at just 2% illumination today, meaning very little moonlight overnight — a factor worth considering for nighttime maritime operations and outdoor activities.
Bottom line: If you are in Caraga, Davao Region, Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Norte, Camiguin, Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Aurora, Quezon, or Camarines Norte, flash floods and landslides are a real possibility today — stay away from rivers, slopes, and flood-prone areas, and follow the instructions of your local disaster risk reduction office. Everyone else should carry an umbrella and check for updates as the day progresses.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.