QUEZON CITY — Wednesday, November 11, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across Mindanao, Visayas, and several provinces in Luzon face the threat of flash floods and landslides today as the northeast monsoon and the easterlies drive unsettled weather across the country, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The agency issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM, valid until 4:00 AM Thursday, November 12, 2026.
While Metro Manila and much of Luzon will see relatively manageable conditions, residents in Mindanao, the Visayas, Cagayan, and several eastern Luzon provinces should remain on alert for heavy rainfall episodes that could trigger dangerous flooding and landslides.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two separate weather systems are shaping conditions across the archipelago today. The northeast monsoon — locally known as amihan — is currently affecting Luzon. The amihan is a seasonal wind pattern that blows from the northeast, typically bringing cool, cloudy, and sometimes rainy weather to the northern and eastern parts of the country. Meanwhile, the easterlies — moisture-laden winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean — are influencing the rest of the country, particularly Visayas and Mindanao, feeding the scattered rains and thunderstorms in those areas.
PAGASA also notes that Typhoon Cempaka (2632), formerly named Samuel, is located 2,440 kilometers east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). As of 3:00 AM today, Cempaka was packing maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 170 km/h, moving east-northeastward at 35 km/h. The typhoon is not affecting Philippine weather conditions and poses no direct threat to any part of the country at this time.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The northeast monsoon is producing a split picture across Luzon today. Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte will experience cloudy skies with rains. PAGASA warns that these rains may reach moderate to at times heavy intensity, raising the possibility of flash floods or landslides in these provinces. Residents in low-lying areas and near hillsides or mountain slopes in these provinces should remain vigilant.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — including areas not specifically listed above — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with only isolated light rains. PAGASA foresees no significant weather impact for these areas today.
Palawan and Masbate, while technically falling within the broader Luzon region, are grouped with the rest of Visayas in PAGASA's forecast today. These areas will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by the easterlies. Flash floods or landslides remain possible during any severe thunderstorm episodes.
Visayas
The Visayas region presents a two-tier outlook today. Eastern Visayas and Central Visayas will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, with the easterlies fueling conditions capable of producing moderate to at times heavy rainfall. PAGASA explicitly warns of the possibility of flash floods or landslides in these areas — a serious concern for communities in mountainous or flood-prone zones.
The rest of Visayas, including Western Visayas, will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. While conditions are less intense, the risk of flash floods or landslides still exists during severe thunderstorm episodes, so residents should not let their guard down entirely.
Mindanao
Mindanao is among the most affected areas in today's forecast. The easterlies are producing cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across the entire island group. PAGASA warns that rainfall may become moderate to at times heavy, with a clear risk of flash floods and landslides. Residents — particularly those in areas with known susceptibility to flooding and slope failures — should monitor local advisories closely throughout the day.
Wind and Sea Conditions
Rough seas are a major concern today, particularly off Luzon's coasts. PAGASA's forecast for coastal waters is as follows:
- Northern Luzon: Moderate to strong winds from the northeast. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough, with wave heights of 2.1 to 4.5 meters.
- Rest of Luzon: Moderate to strong winds from the northeast. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough, with wave heights of 2.1 to 3.8 meters.
- Visayas and Mindanao: Light to moderate winds from the east to northeast. Coastal waters will be slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
The moderate to rough seas off Luzon's coasts pose serious dangers to small boats and fishing vessels. PAGASA urges mariners and fisherfolk in these areas to exercise extreme caution or avoid venturing out to sea entirely.
Decoding the Warnings: What PAGASA's Hazard Flags Mean for You
PAGASA's forecast for today carries flash flood and landslide hazard warnings for several areas — Mindanao, Eastern and Central Visayas, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Palawan, Masbate, and the rest of Visayas. These are not tropical cyclone wind signals; they are rainfall-driven hazard notices embedded in the regional forecast. In plain terms, they mean that rainfall is expected to be heavy enough — either continuously or in short, intense bursts — to cause rivers to overflow rapidly or slopes to give way, with little warning time for affected communities.
If you are unsure how PAGASA's warning system works — including rainfall color codes, storm signals, and heat index categories — refer to this guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a plain-language breakdown of every level and what each one requires you to do.
Areas under flash flood and landslide risk should take these warnings seriously. Even a relatively brief but heavy downpour can cause dangerous flooding in low-lying areas and trigger landslides on unstable slopes, particularly where the ground is already saturated.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are traveling in Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, or Camarines Norte today, expect disruptions. Roads in flood-prone zones may become impassable during heavy rain episodes, and landslides could affect mountain roads. Allow extra travel time, check road conditions before heading out, and be prepared to shelter in place if heavy rain begins. Metro Manila commuters face a lighter day — isolated light rains may cause minor inconvenience but no significant disruption is forecast.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA's sea-state data makes clear that conditions off Luzon's coasts are particularly dangerous today, with moderate to rough seas and wave heights reaching up to 4.5 meters off northern Luzon. Small fishing boats and bancas should not venture into these waters. Even off Visayas and Mindanao, where seas are slight to moderate, the scattered thunderstorms add an additional layer of risk on the water. Fisherfolk in all areas should assess conditions carefully before departing.
Farmers
Farmers in Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and the affected Luzon provinces should secure crops, equipment, and livestock ahead of potential heavy rain and thunderstorm episodes. Flash flooding and waterlogging are real risks in low-lying agricultural areas today. Those on sloped farmland should be alert to landslide warnings from local authorities.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
In areas under flash flood and landslide risk — particularly in Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte — parents and school administrators should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. If heavy rain begins in your area during school hours, prioritize safety and do not send children out in floodwaters. For Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, conditions are not expected to significantly affect school operations.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery personnel, and others who work outdoors in Mindanao and the Visayas should be prepared for sudden, intense thunderstorms today. Seek shelter at the first sign of lightning, and avoid working in exposed, elevated, or flood-prone areas during heavy rain periods. In northern Luzon provinces also under rain risk, the same advice applies.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's temperature data for the 24-hour period ending 8:00 PM yesterday, recorded at the Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City, showed a maximum temperature of 31.7°C (recorded at 3:00 PM) and a minimum of 24.3°C (recorded at 7:00 AM). Relative humidity ranged from a maximum of 89% (at 7:00 AM) to a minimum of 48% (at 3:00 PM). These figures are specific to the Diliman, Quezon City monitoring station and serve as a reference for Metro Manila conditions.
Tidal Information for Manila Bay
For Metro Manila, NAMRIA tidal predictions for Manila Bay show a low tide of -0.21 meters at 6:15 AM and a high tide of 1.11 meters at 10:27 PM today. Tomorrow's moonrise is at 7:25 AM and moonset at 6:47 PM, with the moon at 5% illumination. Sunrise today is at 5:55 AM and sunset at 5:25 PM.
Bottom Line
If you live in or are traveling to Mindanao, Eastern or Central Visayas, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, or Camarines Norte today, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 — take the flash flood and landslide warnings seriously. Stay away from riverbanks and slopes during heavy rain, avoid flooded roads, and monitor your local government's announcements. Fisherfolk off Luzon's coasts should stay ashore given the rough seas. Everywhere else, stay weather-aware — conditions can change quickly when thunderstorms are in the forecast.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.