MANILA, October 13, 2026 — A large portion of the Philippines faces cloudy skies, scattered rains, and the threat of thunderstorms on Tuesday, as the easterlies push moisture over much of Luzon and the eastern sections of the Visayas, according to PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast issued this morning. The forecast is valid until 4:00 AM on Wednesday, October 14, 2026.
Residents in the Bicol Region, much of the Visayas, and several provinces in Southern Luzon are most at risk, with moderate to heavy rains possible at times. PAGASA warns that flash floods and landslides are possible in these areas. Most of the rest of the country, including Metro Manila and Mindanao, should prepare for isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms that could also trigger flash floods if they become severe.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
Two wind patterns are at work across the country today. The easterlies — a steady flow of moist maritime air blowing in from the Pacific Ocean toward the Philippine landmass from the east — are the dominant force affecting Luzon and the eastern sections of the Visayas. When this moist air mass encounters the mountains and landmass of the archipelago, it rises, cools, and condenses into clouds, rainshowers, and thunderstorms. That is why areas from Bicol to parts of CALABARZON, Central Luzon, and the eastern Visayas are seeing the most unsettled skies today.
Meanwhile, a northeasterly windflow — the early edge of the northeast monsoon, locally known as the amihan — is affecting the extreme northern tip of Luzon, specifically Batanes and the Babuyan Islands. This windflow is bringing only light, isolated rains to those northernmost islands today.
PAGASA also reports that a Tropical Depression is currently located 2,790 kilometers east of Northern Luzon (at coordinates 17.7°N, 148.1°E) as of 3:00 AM today. The system has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near its center, with gusts of up to 70 km/h, and is moving west-northwestward at 15 km/h. Critically, this tropical depression is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is not directly affecting Philippine weather conditions today. No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised anywhere in the country.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Bicol Region, Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon will bear the heaviest weather in Luzon today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, driven by the easterlies. Rains may become moderate to heavy at times. Residents and local government units in these provinces should watch for flash floods in low-lying areas and landslides in elevated or mountainous terrain.
Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Cagayan Valley, the rest of Central Luzon, and the rest of CALABARZON can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, also attributed to the easterlies. While the rain coverage is less widespread than in Bicol and Southern Luzon, PAGASA notes that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorms in these areas.
Batanes and the Babuyan Islands will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains brought by the northeasterly windflow. No significant weather impact is expected in the country's northernmost islands today.
Visayas
Western Visayas and Eastern Visayas are among the most affected areas in the country today, with cloudy skies and scattered rains and thunderstorms driven by the easterlies. Moderate to heavy rains are possible at times, raising the risk of flash floods and landslides. Residents in coastal, low-lying, and mountainous communities should be on alert.
The eastern sections of the Visayas will experience moderate coastal waters with wave heights between 1.5 and 2.1 meters, consistent with the stronger wind and sea conditions affecting the eastern side of the country. The rest of the Visayas falls under the lighter coastal water condition category.
Mindanao
Most of Mindanao falls under the "rest of the country" category in today's forecast, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms due to localized thunderstorm activity. While this represents the least severe weather category in today's bulletin, PAGASA still notes that flash floods and landslides are possible if and when severe thunderstorms develop. Mindanao residents should not dismiss the possibility of sudden, intense but short-lived downpours.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Wind and sea conditions differ between the northern and southern portions of the country today.
Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, and the eastern sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas will experience moderate winds blowing from the northeast to east. Coastal waters in these areas will be moderate, with wave heights ranging from 1.5 to 2.1 meters. These conditions pose a risk to small and bancas vessels operating in these waters.
The rest of the country — covering the western sections of Southern Luzon, most of the Visayas, and Mindanao — will have light to moderate winds coming from the southeast to east. Coastal waters there will range from slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
Decoding Today's Weather Hazard Warnings
No tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect anywhere in the Philippines today. The tropical depression currently in the Pacific Ocean remains far outside PAR and poses no direct threat to the country at this time.
However, PAGASA's forecast does flag the potential for flash floods and landslides in areas expecting moderate to heavy rains — specifically in the Bicol Region, Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Western Visayas, and Eastern Visayas. Even in areas with only isolated thunderstorms, flash floods and landslides are flagged as possible if those storms become severe.
These are not formal color-coded rainfall warnings issued through PAGASA's rainfall advisory system, but they are explicit hazard flags in the official forecast that residents, local officials, and disaster-risk teams should take seriously. If you want to understand how PAGASA's warning levels work, including rainfall color codes and storm signals, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What Today's Weather Means for You
Commuters
Expect possible traffic disruptions and flooded streets in Metro Manila, Bicol, the Visayas, and parts of Southern Luzon if thunderstorms develop during morning or evening rush hours. Leave extra time for your commute and avoid crossing flooded roads or underpasses, no matter how shallow the water appears. Keep an eye on local government advisories throughout the day, as isolated thunderstorms can develop quickly and intensify without much warning.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Moderate coastal waters with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.1 meters are forecast for the waters off Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, and the eastern sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas — conditions that can be dangerous for small, non-motorized, or lightly built bancas. Fisherfolk in those waters are advised to exercise caution. Those in the rest of the country will encounter slight to moderate seas (0.6 to 1.8 meters), which are more manageable but still warrant care, especially if thunderstorms develop nearby.
Farmers
Farmers in Bicol, the Visayas, and the affected provinces of Southern Luzon should secure crops, seedlings, and farming equipment ahead of potential moderate to heavy downpours. Flash flooding in low-lying agricultural fields is a concern. Farmers in Mindanao and the rest of Luzon should remain alert for sudden, localized heavy rains from thunderstorms even where the general forecast is for only isolated showers.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in Bicol, Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Western Visayas, and Eastern Visayas should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions. Thunderstorms in these areas can develop rapidly. Even in Metro Manila and other parts of Luzon, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible and can affect school dismissal hours.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Teams
Workers in exposed or elevated locations — such as construction sites, power line crews, or agricultural workers in hillside areas — should plan their workday around the possibility of afternoon or evening thunderstorms. Lightning is a significant hazard during severe thunderstorm episodes. In landslide-prone areas of the Bicol Region, the Cordillera, and the eastern Visayas, ground teams should stay alert for signs of soil saturation and slope instability if rains become prolonged or heavy.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded a maximum temperature of 31.5°C at 2:00 PM yesterday and a minimum of 24.5°C at 4:00 AM yesterday, with relative humidity peaking at 97% at 6:00 AM and dipping to a minimum of 65% at 3:00 PM. No heat index advisory is in effect in today's forecast. Cloud cover and rain across much of Luzon and the Visayas may limit daytime heat build-up in those areas today.
Tidal and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For Manila Bay today, tides are as follows: low tide at 6:04 AM, high tide at 12:24 PM (0.51 m), low tide at 3:47 PM (0.41 m), and high tide at 11:02 PM (1.05 m). Sunrise in Metro Manila is at 5:47 AM and sunset at 5:38 PM. The moon rises at 7:46 AM and sets at 7:18 PM, with only 8% illumination — a near-new moon. (Tidal data courtesy of NAMRIA.)
Bottom Line
If you are in the Bicol Region, Aurora, Quezon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Western Visayas, or Eastern Visayas, prepare for potentially heavy rain and the real risk of flash floods and landslides today — stay away from riverbanks, avoid flood-prone areas, and follow your local government's advisories. The rest of the country should remain alert for sudden thunderstorms that can turn severe with little warning.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.