QUEZON CITY — July 22, 2026: Two active weather systems are working in tandem on Wednesday to drench much of the Philippines with scattered rains, thunderstorms, and the persistent threat of flash floods and landslides. The Southwest Monsoon is sweeping across Mindanao and the Visayas while a trough of a Low Pressure Area reaches into Bicol and Eastern Visayas — leaving virtually no region of the country without a weather concern today, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), which issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM this Wednesday.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Two distinct but simultaneous weather features are responsible for today's conditions across the archipelago.
The first is the Southwest Monsoon, known locally as "habagat." This is the seasonal large-scale wind pattern that blows warm, moisture-laden air northeastward from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea during the Philippine rainy season. When habagat is active and strong, it funnels continuous moisture into the country's western and southern flanks — in this case, Mindanao, the Visayas, and Palawan — triggering persistent cloud buildup, heavy downpours, and thunderstorms.
The second system is a trough of a Low Pressure Area (LPA). A trough is essentially an elongated zone of relatively lower atmospheric pressure — not quite a full storm system, but an unstable band of air that acts like a funnel for rain clouds. This particular trough is positioned over the eastern sections of Southern Luzon and the Visayas, enhancing rainfall and raising the risk of flooding in Bicol and Eastern Visayas.
In the rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, neither of the two major systems is the primary driver. Instead, localized thunderstorms — the kind that develop from daytime heating of land surfaces — are producing isolated but potentially intense bursts of rain.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, and Palawan
These areas are squarely under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the valid forecast period. The primary concern here is rainfall intensity: moderate to heavy rains are expected, and with that comes an elevated risk of flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying, coastal, and mountainous communities. Residents in flood-prone barangays and those living near hillsides or mountainous terrain should remain alert and prepared to evacuate if local authorities issue warnings.
Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas
The trough of the Low Pressure Area is directing its influence here, generating cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms across both regions. Like the areas under the habagat, the hazard profile is identical: moderate to heavy rains carry the potential for flash floods and landslides. Residents in provinces such as Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Masbate, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, and Leyte should monitor water levels in rivers and drainage systems throughout the day.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
The capital and the remaining provinces of Luzon — including areas in Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Calabarzon (outside Bicol), and Mimaropa — will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized thunderstorm activity. While these areas are not under the direct grip of a large-scale monsoon or trough system today, PAGASA warns that flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes. Thunderstorms that develop locally can still produce sudden, intense downpours in a short period of time, overwhelming drainage systems rapidly.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Light to moderate winds are expected across the entire country, but the direction and the resulting sea state differ by area.
Over Mindanao and Palawan, winds will blow from the southwest to west — reflecting the habagat's signature direction — and coastal waters will be slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters. This is the roughest sea condition in the country today.
Over the Visayas, Central Luzon, and the rest of Southern Luzon, winds will come from the northeast to northwest, with slight to moderate coastal waters and wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters.
For the rest of Luzon, winds will be variable in direction, with slight to moderate seas and wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Risk Level Means for You
PAGASA's forecast for Wednesday, July 22, 2026 does not include a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal, but it does flag a significant and widespread hazard: the risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rains. This warning applies to the most heavily affected areas — those under the Southwest Monsoon and the LPA trough.
A flash flood is a rapid, sudden rise in water levels in rivers, streams, low-lying areas, and urban drainage systems. It can occur within minutes of intense rainfall — sometimes even when it has not rained heavily at the specific location that floods, because water rushes down from upland areas. A landslide hazard means that rain-saturated soil on hillsides and mountains may become unstable and give way with little warning.
Even areas under "isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms" — such as Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon — should not be complacent. Localized thunderstorms can drop significant amounts of rainfall in a very short time, quickly causing urban flooding in low-lying streets and underpasses.
If you want to better understand how PAGASA classifies weather hazards and what each level requires of you, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You Today
Commuters
Expect traffic disruptions in Metro Manila and other urban centers if afternoon thunderstorms trigger flash flooding — a common occurrence during the rainy season. Leave for work or school earlier than usual, and keep an eye on real-time road and flood updates from your local government unit. Avoid walking through floodwater, which can conceal open manholes, broken pavement, and electrical hazards.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Sea conditions are at their roughest near Mindanao and Palawan, where wave heights could reach 2.1 meters. Small, motorized bancas and fishing vessels should exercise extreme caution in these waters. Even in areas where wave heights are lower (0.6 to 1.5 meters in the Visayas and Southern Luzon, 0.6 to 1.2 meters elsewhere), conditions remain rough enough to pose a risk to small vessels. If in doubt, stay ashore today.
Farmers
Areas under the Southwest Monsoon — particularly in Mindanao, Western Visayas, Negros Island, and Palawan — face the risk of crop damage from flooding and strong winds. Farmers in low-lying agricultural areas should secure livestock and harvested crops ahead of potential flash flooding. Those in rain-dependent areas may benefit from the additional moisture, but prolonged heavy rains can damage standing crops and increase the risk of soil erosion.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Classes may be suspended in areas that experience severe flooding or thunderstorms. Parents should monitor announcements from local government units and the Department of Education for class suspension orders, particularly in Mindanao, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and the Visayas, where the heaviest rains are forecast today. Do not send children out during active thunderstorms.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Personnel
Workers exposed to the elements — in construction, agriculture, and utilities — should be briefed on the day's weather risks before starting shifts. Lightning is a real danger during thunderstorms; suspend outdoor work immediately when thunder is heard or lightning is observed and seek sturdy shelter. Workers in areas near riverbanks or slopes should be aware of the flash flood and landslide hazards flagged by PAGASA.
Temperature Outlook
Based on the most recent readings from PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City — recorded during the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on Tuesday, July 21 — Metro Manila's maximum temperature reached 33.3°C at 2:00 PM, while the minimum dipped to 25.6°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 94% at 5:00 AM to a low of 59% at 3:00 PM.
While no formal heat index warning is in effect in today's forecast, the combination of warm temperatures and high humidity — especially in areas that experience breaks in cloud cover — can still make conditions feel significantly hotter than the thermometer reading, particularly during the late morning and early afternoon hours before any thunderstorm activity develops.
Tidal Information for Manila Bay
For those in coastal Metro Manila and nearby areas, PAGASA — citing data courtesy of the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) — lists the following tidal predictions for Manila Bay on Wednesday, July 22, 2026: High tide at 4:06 AM (0.9 m), Low tide at 11:42 AM (0.49 m), High tide at 3:49 PM (0.57 m), and Low tide at 8:46 PM (0.48 m). Sunrise is at 5:37 AM and sunset at 6:28 PM. The moon is at 60% illumination, with moonrise at 12:31 PM.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Whether you are in Mindanao, the Visayas, Bicol, or Metro Manila, rain is part of your Wednesday. The most serious risks — flash floods and landslides — are in the areas hammered by the Southwest Monsoon and the LPA trough, but no region is entirely in the clear. The single most important thing you can do today is stay informed: know your community's evacuation routes, follow your local government's updates, and do not wait for a flood to reach your door before you act.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.