QUEZON CITY, August 25, 2026 — The southwest monsoon is tightening its grip on the Philippines this Tuesday, bringing heavy and potentially dangerous rainfall to a large swath of Luzon while the rest of the country braces for scattered showers, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its latest forecast issued at 3:00 AM today.
Two tropical cyclones — Typhoon Saudel and Tropical Depression Atsani — are active in the Pacific but remain well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and neither is directly driving today's weather. The primary culprit is the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, which is producing this week's widespread wet conditions across the country.
What Is Driving Today's Rain?
The southwest monsoon, or habagat, is a seasonal wind system that blows moist air from the southwest across the Philippines, typically from June through September. When it is active and well-established, it funnels large amounts of moisture from the sea onto Luzon's western-facing coasts and mountain ranges, triggering persistent, heavy rainfall that can last for hours or even days. That is exactly the pattern playing out today, with the monsoon identified by PAGASA as the direct cause of the heavy rain bearing down on Metro Manila and surrounding regions.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Bicol
These areas are taking the brunt of the southwest monsoon today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered to at times widespread heavy rain across Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon), Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, and nearby islands), and the Bicol Region.
Residents in these areas should be on alert for flash floods and landslides, particularly in low-lying communities near rivers and in hilly or mountainous provinces such as those in the Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, and Bicol. The rain is not expected to be a brief shower — this is monsoon rain, which tends to be sustained and can overwhelm drainage systems and river channels quickly.
The Rest of Luzon
Provinces in Luzon not listed above will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, according to PAGASA. While the rainfall here will be less persistent than in the hardest-hit areas, severe thunderstorms can still trigger sudden flash floods and landslides. Residents should remain watchful, especially in the afternoon when thunderstorms typically peak.
Visayas and Mindanao
The southwest monsoon is also affecting the Visayas and Mindanao, though with less intensity. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms across the rest of the country. As in Luzon, severe thunderstorms in these regions carry the risk of flash floods and landslides, and residents in vulnerable communities should stay alert to rapidly changing conditions.
Coastal and Sea Conditions: Warnings for Fisherfolk
The southwest monsoon is also churning the seas, particularly around Luzon. PAGASA's forecast for wind and coastal water conditions this Tuesday is as follows:
- Luzon: Moderate to strong winds from the southwest; coastal waters are moderate to rough, with areas outside Luzon's coasts reaching rough conditions.
- The rest of the country (Visayas and Mindanao): Light to moderate winds; coastal waters are slight to moderate.
"Moderate to rough" seas typically mean wave heights that make small-boat navigation hazardous and uncomfortable. "Rough" seas are dangerous for small vessels and can be challenging even for larger boats. PAGASA strongly advises small-boat operators and fisherfolk off Luzon to stay in port or exercise extreme caution today.
Tropical Cyclones Outside PAR
Two tropical cyclones are currently active in the western Pacific but pose no direct threat to the Philippines as of 3:00 AM Tuesday:
- Typhoon Saudel (2618), formerly "Obet": Located approximately 1,160 kilometers east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon (25.7°N, 132.1°E), with maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 185 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h.
- Tropical Depression Atsani (2621): Located approximately 1,760 kilometers east of northern Luzon (18.5°N, 136.3°E), with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northward at 10 km/h.
PAGASA will continue to monitor both systems. Readers should watch for updates, as Typhoon Saudel's west-northwestward track bears watching in the days ahead.
Decoding the Warnings
No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility as of this bulletin. However, the heavy monsoon rainfall affecting much of Luzon carries real hazards that warrant public vigilance. Flash flood and landslide risk, as identified by PAGASA, means that communities near rivers, valleys, and steep slopes should have an evacuation plan ready and monitor local alerts from their Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Offices (LDRRMOs).
For a plain-language explanation of the full range of weather warning levels used in the Philippines — including rainfall color codes and storm signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters in Metro Manila and Luzon
Expect heavy, prolonged rain throughout the day — not just afternoon showers. Roads in flood-prone areas of Metro Manila and nearby provinces may become impassable. Allow significantly more travel time, waterproof your bag and important documents, and check local flood alerts before heading out. If flooding is occurring on your route, do not attempt to cross floodwaters on foot or by vehicle.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Those operating off Luzon's coasts face the most serious sea conditions today, with moderate to rough and even rough waters expected. PAGASA's forecast makes clear that conditions are hazardous for small vessels. Stay ashore today if at all possible. Fisherfolk in the Visayas and Mindanao face lighter seas, but isolated thunderstorms can still produce sudden squalls — remain cautious and monitor conditions closely.
Farmers
Heavy monsoon rain across Luzon, particularly in agricultural provinces in Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Ilocos, and Bicol, could waterlog fields and damage crops. Farmers should secure equipment and check drainage in their fields. Flash flood risk in river valleys and low-lying farmland is real today.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Families across Metro Manila and heavily affected Luzon regions should monitor announcements from their Local Government Units (LGUs) regarding class suspensions. Heavy monsoon rain in the morning can worsen quickly. Prepare rain gear and have a contingency plan in case schools close mid-day.
Outdoor and Construction Workers
Workers in open-air environments in Luzon — particularly those at elevated or hillside sites — should be aware of landslide risk during prolonged heavy rain. Construction supervisors should evaluate whether it is safe to continue outdoor work today, and all workers should be aware of the nearest high ground or safe area in the event of a sudden flood.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's 24-hour temperature data (ending 8:00 PM yesterday) shows a minimum temperature of 27.6°C recorded at 5:00 AM and minimum relative humidity of 62% at 11:00 AM. The heavy cloud cover brought by the southwest monsoon is keeping daytime temperatures from climbing sharply, though humidity remains elevated — meaning it will feel warm and sticky even when it is not actively raining. Outdoor workers should stay hydrated and take breaks in shaded areas.
Bottom Line
If you are in Metro Manila, Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, or Bicol today: treat this as a heavy rain day with real flood and landslide risk. Avoid flood-prone areas, do not cross floodwaters, keep an eye on alerts from your local government, and postpone any non-essential outdoor activities. Fisherfolk off Luzon should stay ashore. The rest of the country should stay alert for afternoon thunderstorms even if the morning starts clear.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.