MANILA, August 8, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across Luzon and Visayas are waking up to a wet, unsettled Saturday as the southwest monsoon tightens its grip on much of the country. The state weather bureau, PAGASA, issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, warning of moderate to heavy and at times intense rainfall in numerous provinces — conditions that could trigger flash floods and landslides before the day is out.
The rest of Mindanao, while spared the worst of the monsoon's reach, is not entirely dry, with localized thunderstorms expected to bring sudden, heavy downpours in some areas through Saturday.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The primary driver of today's widespread rainfall is the southwest monsoon, known locally as habagat. The habagat is a seasonal wind system that blows moisture-laden air from the southwest across the Philippines, typically between June and September. When it is active, it funnels warm, wet air from the West Philippine Sea and the surrounding ocean directly into Luzon and the Visayas, feeding persistent cloud cover and triggering heavy rainfall, especially over windward slopes and coastal areas.
Adding another layer of concern today: Typhoon Dolphin (2613) is currently located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), approximately 610 kilometers northeast of extreme northern Luzon. According to PAGASA, the typhoon is packing maximum sustained winds of 155 kilometers per hour near its center, with gusts of up to 190 kilometers per hour, and is moving southwestward at 15 kilometers per hour. While Typhoon Dolphin remains outside PAR and no tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised over any part of the Philippines, its outer circulation is producing cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms over Batanes and the Babuyan Islands. Its presence is also enhancing the flow of the southwest monsoon, intensifying rainfall over parts of Luzon.
PAGASA will continue to monitor Typhoon Dolphin's track and issue updates as necessary.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon: Heaviest Rains, Highest Risk
Luzon is bearing the brunt of today's habagat. PAGASA identifies several zones of concern across the island group, each facing different intensity levels of rainfall.
Most severely affected are Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Antique, where the southwest monsoon is expected to produce heavy to at times intense rains throughout the day. These areas face the highest risk of flash floods and landslides, and residents in low-lying and mountainous communities should be on heightened alert.
Zambales and Bataan are also forecast to receive heavy monsoon rains, again with a significant risk of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rainfall.
A broader swath of Luzon — including Metro Manila, the Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas — can expect cloudy skies with occasional to moderate to heavy rainfall driven by the southwest monsoon. These areas are not exempt from flash flood and landslide risks, particularly in localities near rivers, drainage channels, or unstable hillsides.
In the far north, Batanes and the Babuyan Islands are experiencing cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, this time caused by the outer trough of Typhoon Dolphin rather than the monsoon directly. Rainfall in these areas may be moderate to at times heavy.
Visayas: Monsoon Influence Extends South
The southwest monsoon's reach extends into portions of the Visayas today. Northern Visayas is forecast to see cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms — conditions tied to the combined effects of the monsoon. Residents in coastal and low-lying communities should remain watchful for sudden rises in water levels and rough sea conditions.
While not all of the Visayas is equally affected, PAGASA's overall synopsis confirms that the southwest monsoon is influencing weather across the region. Travelers and residents should check local forecasts and exercise caution, particularly in areas with known flooding or landslide histories.
Mindanao: Thunderstorm Risk Remains
The rest of Mindanao is expected to experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with localized rainshowers and thunderstorms, caused by localized weather disturbances rather than the monsoon directly. Although conditions here are less severe than in Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA cautions that these thunderstorms can still produce flash floods or landslides during periods of particularly heavy precipitation. Areas affected today include parts of the Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, and Lanao del Sur, which are forecast to have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Strong winds and rough seas are a major concern across the Philippines today, and PAGASA urges all maritime stakeholders to take conditions seriously.
- Extreme northern Luzon (including the Batanes and Babuyan area): Strong to near-gale-force winds from the southwest, with coastal waters described as rough to very rough — wave heights reaching 2.8 to 4.5 meters.
- The rest of Luzon: Moderate to strong southwest winds, with rough coastal waters — wave heights of 1.2 to 2.5 meters.
- Visayas and Mindanao: Moderate to strong south winds, with moderate to rough coastal waters — wave heights of 0.6 to 2.5 meters.
These sea conditions pose real danger to small vessels. PAGASA strongly advises fisherfolk and small-boat operators to exercise extreme caution or avoid venturing out to sea, especially in the northern and western coastal waters.
Understanding Today's Warnings: What Each Level Means and What You Should Do
PAGASA has not raised tropical cyclone wind signals over any part of the Philippines as of this forecast, since Typhoon Dolphin remains outside PAR. However, the rainfall and sea conditions described carry their own significant hazards.
The key hazard warnings embedded in today's forecast are for possible flash floods and landslides across multiple provinces in Luzon and parts of Visayas and Mindanao. These are consequence-based advisories that mean water levels in rivers and low-lying areas can rise rapidly and with little warning, and that hillsides and mountainous terrain may become unstable due to saturated soil.
Not sure how to read the full range of PAGASA's alert levels? Our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings breaks down rainfall color codes, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat-index categories in plain language.
For today specifically: if you live in or near the provinces listed above — especially Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Antique, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, and surrounding areas — treat PAGASA's flash flood and landslide advisories as a call to prepare now, not to wait and see.
What Today's Forecast Means for You
Commuters
Expect disruptions to road and public transport across Metro Manila and surrounding provinces. Heavy to intense rains can cause rapid flooding of underpasses, low-lying roads, and flood-prone streets. Allow extra travel time, check local government flood advisories before leaving home, and avoid driving through floodwaters of unknown depth. If your route passes through Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, or Batangas, be aware that conditions may worsen through the morning and afternoon.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Today is a high-risk day at sea. Coastal waters off northern and western Luzon are rough to very rough, with wave heights potentially reaching 4.5 meters in the Batanes area. Even in the Visayas and Mindanao, moderate to rough seas are forecast. PAGASA's guidance is clear: small vessels should not go out. If you are already at sea, return to port as soon as safely possible and monitor PAGASA's marine bulletins.
Farmers
While rainfall generally benefits crops, the intensity being forecast today — heavy to at times intense in key agricultural provinces including Ilocos Region, Pampanga, Bulacan, Batangas, and parts of Mindanao — can damage standing crops, erode topsoil, and flood low-lying farmland. Farmers in flood-prone agricultural areas should secure equipment and check irrigation or drainage systems before conditions worsen.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school officials in affected provinces — particularly Metro Manila and the provinces of Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Abra, Benguet, and Ifugao — should monitor local government announcements for class suspensions. Heavy monsoon rain can escalate quickly, and children should not be in transit during intense downpours. Coordinate with schools early in the morning.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Crews
Workers in open-air or elevated environments face significant risk today. Lightning from thunderstorms is a real hazard in areas experiencing scattered to moderate rainfall. Supervisors should have a clear protocol for suspending work during thunderstorms and for evacuating workers from elevated structures, scaffolding, or flood-prone work sites. In Mindanao, where localized thunderstorms can develop quickly, supervisors should not wait for conditions to become severe before acting.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's observation data for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday provides a baseline for today's thermal conditions. The maximum temperature recorded at its Luzon City station was 37.2°C, while the minimum was 23.8°C. Relative humidity ranged from a high of approximately 94% to a low of 45%.
With heavy cloud cover and active rainfall dominating much of Luzon and Visayas today, actual maximum temperatures in affected areas are likely to be lower than yesterday's peak. However, in areas with only partial cloudiness — particularly parts of Mindanao — afternoon heat and humidity could still combine to produce uncomfortable or potentially hazardous heat-index conditions. Stay hydrated and limit strenuous outdoor activity during the warmest part of the afternoon.
Tide Information for Manila
PAGASA also provides tidal predictions for Manila Bay, which are relevant for coastal communities and low-lying bayside areas. Today's high tide is expected to coincide with periods of heavy rainfall in the region, which may compound drainage problems in coastal and bayside areas of Metro Manila. Residents in areas prone to coastal flooding should factor tidal timing into their preparations. (Full tidal data courtesy of NAMRIA.)
Bottom line: The southwest monsoon is producing dangerous rain conditions across a large portion of Luzon and parts of Visayas today, Saturday, August 8, 2026. Flash floods and landslides are a genuine, PAGASA-identified risk in multiple provinces. The single most important thing you should do today: if you live in or near a flood-prone or landslide-prone area in any of the named provinces, do not wait for water to rise — identify your evacuation route and keep your emergency kit ready now.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.