Tropical Depression Luis remained nearly stationary over the sea east of Aurora early Monday, August 3, 2026, with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warning of a possible landfall over or near Northern Luzon tonight or in the early hours of Tuesday, August 4.
In its 5:00 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA said Luis was located approximately 130 kilometers east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora as of 4:00 a.m., packing maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness reaching up to 70 km/h. The agency noted that strong winds extend outward up to 240 kilometers from the center.
Signal No. 1 Covers Wide Swath of Northern and Central Luzon
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 — warning of strong winds within 36 hours — remains in effect over the following areas, according to PAGASA:
- Central and eastern portions of Cagayan, including Tuguegarao City and Aparri
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Eastern and southern portions of Apayao
- Eastern portions of Kalinga, including Tabuk City
- Mountain Province and Ifugao
- Northern portion of Aurora, including Baler and Casiguran
- Polillo Islands
- Northern portion of Camarines Norte, including Daet
PAGASA said minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are expected in these areas, with locally stronger gusts possible in exposed coastal and upland communities.
Southwest Monsoon to Bring Gusts Across Visayas and Parts of Mindanao
Beyond the signal areas, PAGASA said the Southwest Monsoon combined with the periphery of Luis will generate strong to gale-force gusts across most of Luzon and the Visayas on Monday and Tuesday. Affected areas in Mindanao include Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Sarangani, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
On Wednesday, August 5, the gusts are forecast to persist over most of Luzon and the Visayas, the Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and parts of Caraga and Davao Region. PAGASA referred the public to its Weather Advisory No. 6, also issued at 5:00 a.m. Monday, for the heavy rainfall outlook associated with Luis and the monsoon.
Rough Seas Warning Along Eastern Seaboards
Moderate to rough seas of up to 2.5 meters are expected over the eastern seaboard of Isabela and Davao Oriental and the northeastern seaboard of Aurora, PAGASA reported. Waves of up to 2.0 meters are forecast over the seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, Pangasinan, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Northern Samar, and parts of Bicol, Caraga, and Davao.
PAGASA advised mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels to take precautionary measures or avoid venturing out to sea entirely.
Forecast Track: Landfall Then Sharp Turn Away From Landmass
According to PAGASA, Luis will move generally northwestward before making landfall over or passing close to Northern Luzon tonight or in the early hours of Tuesday morning, after which it is expected to sharply turn east-northeastward and move away from the Philippine landmass. The agency stressed that the forecast track remains highly uncertain and may change in succeeding bulletins.
Luis is expected to remain a tropical depression through most of the forecast period and may weaken into a remnant low by Wednesday before being fully absorbed into the circulation of Tropical Cyclone Dolphin — a super typhoon currently being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). PAGASA said Dolphin is less likely to enter PAR but is expected to further enhance the Southwest Monsoon.
Luis Is 2026's 12th Cyclone, First for August
PAGASA identified Luis as the country's 12th tropical cyclone for 2026 and the first to form for the month of August. The agency anticipates two to four more tropical cyclones forming within or entering PAR during the month.
PAGASA advised the public and disaster risk reduction offices to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Residents in areas highly susceptible to hazards were urged to follow evacuation instructions from local officials. The agency's next bulletin was scheduled for release at 8:00 a.m. Monday.
By the Numbers
- 130 km — distance of Luis east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora as of 4:00 a.m., August 3
- 55 km/h — maximum sustained winds near the center of Luis
- 70 km/h — peak gustiness of Luis
- 240 km — radius of strong winds extending from the center
- 2.5 meters — maximum wave height forecast over the eastern seaboard of Isabela, Davao Oriental, and northeastern Aurora
- 12th — Luis's ranking as the Philippines' 12th tropical cyclone of 2026
- 2 to 4 — additional tropical cyclones PAGASA expects to form within or enter PAR in August
Why This Matters
Tropical Depression Luis poses an immediate threat to communities across Northern Luzon, with PAGASA warning of a possible landfall tonight and strong wind and rainfall hazards already in effect across a wide area. The Southwest Monsoon's interaction with Luis extends weather impacts well beyond the signal zones, affecting sea travel and communities from the Visayas to parts of Mindanao. PAGASA's caution that the forecast track remains highly uncertain underscores the importance of residents and local disaster offices staying updated as the storm progresses.
Photo credit: Photo from PAGASA/Facebook