MANILA, Philippines — Thursday, September 17, 2026 — A Low Pressure Area (LPA) nestled within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is driving wet, stormy, and potentially hazardous weather across a large swath of the country today, with Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao bearing the heaviest impact. PAGASA issued the forecast at 4:00 AM Thursday, valid until 4:00 AM on Friday, September 18.
While Metro Manila and most of Luzon can expect a mostly manageable Thursday with only isolated thunderstorms, residents across Mindanao and the Visayas face a significantly more unsettled day — with flash flood and landslide advisories in effect across multiple regions.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
According to PAGASA, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was located approximately 25 kilometers east of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan as of 3:00 AM today. The LPA is not a tropical cyclone, but it is a distinct area of disturbed weather where atmospheric pressure is lower than the surrounding environment — causing air to rush inward and rise, producing clouds, rain, and thunderstorms.
Critically, this LPA is embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) — a broad belt near the equator where trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet, forcing warm, moist air upward and generating persistent, widespread rainfall. The combination of an active LPA riding within the ITCZ significantly amplifies the rain-producing potential across its path, which today runs through Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.
In plain terms: the ITCZ is already a major rain producer on its own. Add an LPA into that mix, and you get heavier, more organized rainfall with a higher chance of thunderstorms and localized flooding.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Mindanao and MIMAROPA: Heaviest Impact
The most severely affected areas today include MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan), the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, and Davao Oriental. PAGASA forecasts these areas to experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Residents in these provinces should take today's forecast seriously: PAGASA explicitly warns of the possibility of flash floods or landslides in susceptible areas. Communities near riverbanks, low-lying areas, and hillside slopes face the greatest immediate risk.
The rest of Mindanao — areas not specifically listed above — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Flash flood and landslide risks remain possible even in these areas, though the frequency and intensity of rainfall is expected to be lower.
Visayas: Unsettled Skies, Flash Flood Risk
The Visayas falls under the influence of the ITCZ today, with PAGASA forecasting partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms and an explicit warning of possible flash floods or landslides. Residents across the Eastern, Central, and Western Visayas should remain alert, particularly those in mountainous areas and communities near rivers and streams.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon: Isolated Thunderstorms
Metro Manila and the broader Luzon area outside of MIMAROPA will have a comparatively drier Thursday. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms. While widespread heavy rain is not expected, localized flooding near low-lying areas and waterways remains a possibility during any thunderstorm episodes.
Residents in the National Capital Region should watch for sudden, short-burst downpours that can cause rapid street flooding — a common occurrence even when the overall weather pattern is not broadly rainy.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA reports that winds across Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are coming from the southwest to west at light to moderate speeds. Coastal waters across these areas are described as slight to moderate.
For the rest of Luzon, winds are also from a variable direction at light speeds, with coastal waters rated as slight to moderate.
Wave heights are not at gale-warning levels today, but moderate seas can still pose risks to small vessels and bancas, particularly near Palawan and the MIMAROPA region where the LPA is centered.
Understanding Today's Warnings: What Do They Mean?
PAGASA's forecast today does not include Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals — the LPA has not developed into a named storm. However, the bulletin carries clear language about flash flood and landslide risks, which should be treated as serious guidance rather than a casual note.
A flash flood warning means that fast-moving floodwater can develop within minutes in low-lying and near-river areas after heavy rain — giving residents little time to react. A landslide risk means that saturated soil on slopes can give way rapidly. Both hazards can be life-threatening.
If you are unfamiliar with PAGASA's warning system, including rainfall color-coded warnings, storm signals, and heat index categories, this explainer on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings is a useful reference.
Residents in Mindanao, MIMAROPA, and the Visayas should monitor local government announcements, as local disaster risk reduction councils may issue additional advisories based on the evolving weather situation.
What It Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila, isolated thunderstorms can strike quickly and drain slowly — building up floodwater in underpasses and low-lying streets within minutes. If you are commuting today, check PAGASA updates before heading out and leave extra travel time in the afternoon when thunderstorm activity tends to peak. In Mindanao and the Visayas, commuters should expect delays due to rain and should avoid flooded roads entirely — even shallow-looking floodwater can hide debris and open manholes.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
While PAGASA reports no gale warning today, coastal waters from Luzon to Mindanao are described as slight to moderate — with conditions around Palawan potentially rougher given the proximity of the LPA. Small boat operators and fisherfolk are advised to exercise caution, particularly in MIMAROPA waters. Those planning longer sea trips should consider postponing until the LPA's movement and intensity become clearer in subsequent PAGASA bulletins.
Farmers
Farmers in Mindanao and the Visayas should prepare for significant rainfall today. While rain is generally beneficial, the risk of flash flooding means that low-lying farmland near rivers could be inundated. Farmers in Davao del Norte, Davao de Oro, Davao Oriental, Caraga, and BARMM in particular should secure equipment and livestock. Farmers in Luzon, meanwhile, can expect a relatively uneventful day, though late-afternoon thunderstorms are possible.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents in Mindanao and the Visayas should monitor announcements from local government units regarding class suspensions, particularly in areas where flash flooding or landslides have been flagged. Schools near rivers and hillside communities in Caraga, Northern Mindanao, BARMM, MIMAROPA, and Davao provinces should be on alert. In Metro Manila and most of Luzon, classes are not currently under threat from this weather system, but afternoon thunderstorms warrant vigilance.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, market vendors, and all outdoor workers in the rain-affected zones — especially Mindanao, MIMAROPA, and the Visayas — should plan for disruptions throughout the day. Thunderstorms bring lightning risk: seek shelter in a sturdy building at the first sign of a storm and stay away from tall trees, metal structures, and open fields.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA recorded the following figures at its weather station in Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City as of the forecast period:
- Maximum temperature yesterday: 33.0°C (recorded at 3:00 PM)
- Minimum temperature yesterday: 25.0°C (recorded at 6:00 AM)
- Maximum relative humidity: 96% (recorded at 3:00 AM)
- Minimum relative humidity: 87% (recorded at 1:00 PM)
These figures reflect conditions in Metro Manila. The high humidity levels are consistent with the ITCZ influence, which keeps moisture levels elevated across the country. Even in areas not experiencing active rain, the muggy, heavy air will make outdoor activities feel more taxing today.
Bottom Line
If you live in Mindanao, MIMAROPA, or the Visayas, today demands real caution: scattered rains and thunderstorms driven by a Low Pressure Area and the ITCZ bring a genuine risk of flash floods and landslides in your area. Stay away from riverbanks and slopes, monitor local government advisories, and avoid unnecessary travel during heavy downpours. Metro Manila and most of Luzon face a quieter day, but should still watch for sudden afternoon thunderstorms and the localized flooding they can produce.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.