QUEZON CITY, October 10, 2026 — A wide area of the Philippines is waking up to cloudy skies and the threat of heavy rain this Saturday, as a Low Pressure Area (LPA) entrenched within the Intertropical Convergence Zone drives unsettled weather across Metro Manila, the Visayas, Mindanao, and large parts of Luzon. PAGASA issued its 24-hour public weather forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Sunday, October 11.
Flash floods and landslides are the primary hazard for millions of Filipinos today, particularly those living in low-lying communities, near river systems, or on hillside and mountainous terrain across the affected areas.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
At 3:00 AM this morning, PAGASA estimated the Low Pressure Area to be located approximately 410 kilometers east of Catarman, Northern Samar, at coordinates 12.6°N, 128.4°E. The LPA is embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ.
The ITCZ is a broad band of clouds, rain, and thunderstorms that forms near the equator where warm, moist air from both hemispheres converges and rises. When a Low Pressure Area — an area of disturbed, rotating weather — forms within it or becomes embedded in it, the ITCZ's already rain-heavy character is intensified, producing the widespread cloudy skies, scattered rainfall, and thunderstorms that many parts of the country are experiencing today.
In addition to the LPA and ITCZ, PAGASA notes that easterlies — warm, moist winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean's eastern side — are affecting the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon. A northeasterly windflow is also influencing Extreme Northern Luzon, including Batanes.
Separate from all of these local systems, Typhoon Koguma (international designation 2629) is currently located approximately 3,200 kilometers east of Extreme Northern Luzon, well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. With maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 190 km/h, Koguma is moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h. PAGASA's bulletin lists it as a tropical cyclone outside PAR as of 3:00 AM today, and it is not directly driving today's domestic weather conditions.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Metro Manila
The National Capital Region can expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms today, caused by the LPA and ITCZ. Moderate to at times heavy rainfall creates the possibility of flash floods, particularly in flood-prone barangays and areas near esteros and waterways. Residents should avoid unnecessary travel to low-lying or flood-prone zones during periods of heavy rain.
Luzon
Conditions across Luzon vary significantly depending on location:
Bicol Region, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA share Metro Manila's forecast: cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms driven by the LPA and ITCZ, with the risk of flash floods or landslides from moderate to at times heavy rains.
Parts of Cagayan Valley (excluding the main province of Cagayan), as well as Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and Bulacan, also face cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. Here, the driver is the easterlies — and the hazard is the same: possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall.
Batanes, the country's northernmost province group, will see cloudy skies with light rains due to the northeasterly windflow. PAGASA notes no significant impact for Batanes at this time.
The rest of Luzon — provinces not specifically named in the above groupings — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, caused by localized thunderstorms. While the general threat is lower, PAGASA flags the possibility of localized severe thunderstorms, which can bring sudden, intense rainfall, strong winds, and lightning in a short period.
Visayas
The entire Visayas region is under the influence of the LPA and ITCZ, with cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms forecast for the day. Moderate to at times heavy rains raise the risk of flash floods and landslides. Residents in mountainous and coastal communities — from Eastern Samar to Negros to Bohol — should remain on alert.
Mindanao
Like the Visayas, all of Mindanao is affected by the LPA embedded in the ITCZ. Cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected, with moderate to at times heavy rainfall that could produce flash floods or landslides. Communities near river systems and elevated terrain — including areas in Caraga, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, and the Bangsamoro region — should stay alert to rapidly changing conditions.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Level Means
PAGASA's bulletin does not list an active tropical cyclone wind signal for any part of the Philippines, as Typhoon Koguma remains outside PAR. However, the forecast does flag the following active hazards that residents should understand clearly:
Flash floods are sudden, rapid flooding that can occur within minutes to hours of heavy rainfall — often before people can react. They are most dangerous in low-lying areas, near rivers, and in urban zones with poor drainage. If your area begins experiencing very heavy, continuous rain, do not wait for a formal flood warning before moving to higher ground.
Landslides are triggered by prolonged or intense rainfall saturating hillside soil. Residents living on or near slopes, mountainsides, or areas with known geological instability should be especially cautious and ready to evacuate if rain becomes heavy and sustained.
Rough coastal waters in Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Central Luzon — with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.8 meters — pose a real danger to small vessels. This is a practical warning, not just a technical data point: boats that are not built to handle these sea states should not sail. For a full explanation of how PAGASA classifies weather warnings, including rainfall color-coded alerts and storm signals, see our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA's wind and sea-state forecast for today breaks down as follows:
Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Central Luzon will experience moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast to east. Coastal waters in these areas will be rough, with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.8 meters. This is the most hazardous maritime zone in the country today.
The rest of Luzon will have light to moderate winds from the northeast to north, with coastal waters in slight to moderate condition — wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters. Small vessels should still exercise caution.
Visayas can expect light to moderate winds from the northeast to northwest, with slight to moderate coastal waters at 0.6 to 1.8 meters in wave height.
Mindanao will see light to moderate winds from the northwest to southwest, with slight to moderate coastal waters also ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila, Bicol, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, the Visayas, or Mindanao today, prepare for heavy traffic disruptions caused by localized flooding. Bring rain gear, allow extra travel time, and avoid underpasses and flood-prone roads during periods of intense rain. Scattered rains and thunderstorms can intensify quickly — check PAGASA updates before heading out.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Today's most urgent advisory is for those at sea or planning to head out. Fisherfolk and small-boat operators along the coasts of Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Central Luzon face rough seas with waves up to 2.8 meters — conditions that are dangerous for small and even medium-sized vessels. PAGASA strongly advises these operators to remain in port. Those in the rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao face slight to moderate seas, but caution is still warranted, especially with scattered thunderstorms possible.
Farmers
Farmers across Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, CALABARZON, and parts of Luzon should be aware that moderate to heavy rainfall today could affect standing crops, particularly in areas prone to flooding or soil runoff. Secure equipment and harvested produce, and monitor field conditions closely after rain events.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
With scattered rains and thunderstorms covering Metro Manila, Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA, parents should monitor class suspension announcements from local government units throughout the day. Conditions can change rapidly, especially in areas directly under the LPA and ITCZ influence.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, market vendors, and others working outdoors today — especially in the heavily affected areas — should note that thunderstorms can develop with little warning. Seek proper shelter immediately when lightning and thunder begin, and do not take shelter under trees or near metal structures during a storm.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City recorded the following temperature and humidity readings for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday, October 9:
The maximum temperature reached 33.5°C at 12:00 noon, while the minimum was 24.2°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity peaked at 97% at 7:00 AM and dropped to a minimum of 56% at 12:00 noon. Despite the cloud cover and rain, temperatures can still feel uncomfortable during brief sunny breaks, particularly in areas not directly under heavy rain.
Tidal and Astronomical Information for Metro Manila
For Metro Manila and Manila Bay, PAGASA — in coordination with NAMRIA — provides the following tidal data for today, October 10:
Low tide is at 3:15 AM (0.26 m) and 4:01 PM (0.29 m). High tide is at 9:54 AM (0.89 m) and 10:00 PM (0.79 m). Sunrise is at 5:47 AM and sunset at 5:40 PM. Moonrise is at 5:10 AM, moonset at 5:16 PM, with zero percent lunar illumination — a new moon phase.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: If you live in Metro Manila, the Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, or the affected parts of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and Bulacan, your single most important action today is to stay away from flood-prone and landslide-prone areas — and if heavy rain begins falling continuously in your community, move to higher ground immediately without waiting for a formal government order. Do not cross flooded roads or waterways on foot or by vehicle. Keep emergency numbers and your local government's announcements close at hand.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.