Wednesday, September 16, 2026 — Millions of Filipinos across the Visayas and Mindanao face a wet and potentially hazardous day as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) keeps large swaths of the country under heavy rainfall, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). A tropical depression has also been detected far east of the country, though it has not yet entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and no wind signals have been raised.
PAGASA's 4:00 AM forecast bulletin, valid until 4:00 AM Thursday, September 17, 2026, paints a divided national weather picture: a stormy south and central Philippines, and a calmer but still occasionally thundery Luzon.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary weather driver today is the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ — a broad band of low pressure and rising air that forms near the equator where the trade winds from the Northern and Southern hemispheres meet. When the ITCZ lingers over or near the Philippines, it acts like a moisture pump, pulling in warm, humid air from surrounding seas and releasing it as persistent and sometimes intense rainfall. Today, PAGASA says the ITCZ is directly affecting the Visayas and Mindanao, making those regions the most at-risk parts of the country for heavy rain, flooding, and landslides.
Separately, PAGASA is monitoring a tropical depression located approximately 2,970 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 3:09 AM Wednesday. The system is packing maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near its center, with gusts of up to 70 km/h, and is moving west-northwestward slowly. At its current distance — well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility — it poses no direct threat to any part of the country today. PAGASA will continue tracking it.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Visayas
The Visayas will bear the brunt of the ITCZ today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Specifically, areas including Negros, the Zamboanga Peninsula side communities linked to Visayas weather zones, and portions of the broader Visayas island group face the highest likelihood of heavy rainfall capable of triggering flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and coastal-fringe communities.
The rest of the Visayas can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Flooding in low-lying coastal and riverine areas remains a concern throughout the region for the duration of the bulletin period.
Mindanao
Mindanao is similarly affected by the ITCZ. Northern Mindanao, Caraga, the Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis provinces, Camiguin, and Surigao del Norte are among the areas PAGASA identifies as likely to experience cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms. Flash floods and landslides are cited as the primary hazards for these areas.
The rest of Mindanao — areas not specifically named in the highest-impact zones — will still see partly cloudy skies with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, with localized flooding possible in vulnerable communities. Residents in all parts of Mindanao, especially those near rivers, slopes, and low-lying coastal areas, are advised to remain alert.
Luzon (Including Metro Manila)
Luzon gets a relative reprieve from the ITCZ today. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms, according to PAGASA. While the capital and most of Luzon will not experience the widespread, persistent rain seen in the south, isolated, localized thunderstorms can still bring sudden, heavy downpours — enough to cause localized flooding and landslides in susceptible areas during severe thunderstorm events.
Residents of Metro Manila and Luzon provinces should not dismiss the possibility of a sudden afternoon shower or evening storm, which are typical of the season.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Level Means for You
PAGASA's forecast tables identify specific impact hazards for today's affected areas. No tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised anywhere in the country. However, the rainfall hazard picture deserves close attention — and if you want a full breakdown of how PAGASA classifies rainfall warnings and storm signals, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
For today, the hazards PAGASA has flagged are:
- Flash floods — Rapidly rising water in low-lying and riverside areas following intense, short-duration rain. In the hardest-hit Visayas and Mindanao zones, this is the most immediate life-safety risk. If you live near a river or drainage canal, know your evacuation route now, before rain intensifies.
- Landslides — Soil and debris movement on steep slopes made unstable by saturation. Mountain communities and those near hillsides in Visayas and Mindanao provinces should monitor local government advisories closely.
- Localized flooding — Even in areas with less intense rain, poor drainage and accumulated runoff can flood streets and low-lying neighborhoods. This applies across all affected regions, including parts of Luzon during isolated thunderstorms.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA's wind and coastal water forecast shows the following conditions across the country's major maritime zones:
- Mindanao: Light to moderate winds; slight to moderate coastal waters.
- Visayas and Palawan: Light to moderate winds from the northwest; slight to moderate seas.
- Luzon and surrounding waters: Light to moderate winds from the northeast to northwest; slight to moderate coastal waters.
No gale warnings have been issued. However, "slight to moderate" seas still mean wave heights that can be hazardous for small, non-motorized watercraft and bancas. Fisherfolk are strongly advised to assess conditions carefully before departing.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in any part of Visayas or Mindanao today, expect rain throughout the day and plan for delays. Bring waterproof gear regardless of morning conditions — the ITCZ can intensify rainfall rapidly and without extended warning. In Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorms are possible and can cause sudden flooding in low-lying areas and underpasses. Allow extra travel time.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters are rated slight to moderate across all regions. While no gale warnings are active, moderate seas can be challenging and dangerous for small bancas and outrigger boats. PAGASA advises fisherfolk to exercise caution. Those operating in the waters around Visayas and Mindanao, where the ITCZ is active, face additional risk from rapidly developing squalls associated with thunderstorms. If in doubt, remain onshore.
Farmers
Heavy rainfall across Visayas and Mindanao presents dual risks for agriculture: potential crop damage from flooding and waterlogging in low-lying fields, and the threat of landslides in upland farming communities. Farmers in the ITCZ-affected zones should secure equipment and harvested crops. The isolated thunderstorms forecast for Luzon may benefit dry fields but can also cause localized damage to vulnerable crops.
Students, Parents, and School Administrators
Schools in heavily affected areas of Visayas and Mindanao — particularly those in flood-prone barangays or near waterways — should monitor local government announcements on class suspensions. Parents should ensure children traveling to school are equipped with rain gear and know safe routes home. In Luzon, conditions are less severe, but isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon remain possible.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in exposed outdoor settings across Visayas and Mindanao face significant risk from heavy rain, lightning during thunderstorms, and potential flash floods or landslides near slopes. Site supervisors should have clear protocols for suspending work during heavy rainfall. In Luzon, isolated thunderstorms still pose a lightning risk to workers on elevated structures or open fields.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's recorded data from its Quezon City weather station shows a maximum temperature of 30.3°C recorded at 3:00 PM the previous day, and a minimum of 26.1°C recorded overnight. Relative humidity reached a maximum of 96% at 5:00 AM. These figures reflect the humid, moisture-laden conditions typical of ITCZ influence. Residents in the affected regions should expect similarly warm and muggy conditions punctuated by rain.
Astronomical Information
For planning purposes, PAGASA notes that sunrise is at 5:51 AM and sunset is at 5:58 PM on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. The moon is at 26% illumination (a waning crescent), with moonrise at 9:57 AM and moonset at 9:25 PM. High tide over Manila Bay is at 4:35 AM and low tide at 5:27 PM.
Bottom Line
If you are in Visayas or Mindanao today, treat this as a high-alert rain day. The ITCZ is producing heavy, widespread rainfall with real risks of flash floods and landslides — know your local evacuation routes, avoid crossing flooded roads and streams, and follow your local government's advisories. If you are in Luzon, including Metro Manila, stay prepared for a sudden afternoon thunderstorm and carry rain protection. No area of the country should write off the possibility of rain today.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.