QUEZON CITY, September 28, 2026 — A weather system straddling the equatorial belt is keeping millions of Filipinos in Visayas and Mindanao under persistent cloud cover and rain this Monday, while the rest of the country braces for localized thunderstorms that can still pack a dangerous punch. The state weather bureau PAGASA issued its 4:00 AM bulletin today, valid until 4:00 AM on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, painting a nationwide forecast shaped primarily by one key driver: the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The ITCZ is a broad belt of low pressure that forms near the equator where trade winds from the Northern and Southern hemispheres meet. When these opposing air masses collide, they push warm, moisture-laden air upward — fueling cloud formation, persistent rainfall, and thunderstorm activity. Think of it as a long, meandering rain-maker that slowly drifts north and south with the seasons. Right now, according to PAGASA, it is positioned over Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao, which explains why those areas are bearing the brunt of today's wet and unsettled weather.
Separately, PAGASA reports that Typhoon Surigae (2626) — formerly known locally as "Queenie" — is currently located 1,055 kilometers northeast of extreme northern Luzon, with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h and gusts of up to 215 km/h near its center. As of 3:00 AM today, the typhoon is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and moving east-northeastward at 15 km/h — that is, moving away from the Philippines. PAGASA has not raised any wind signal for any part of the country in connection with Surigae, and it is not named as a driver of today's local weather conditions.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Visayas
Residents across the Visayas — from Eastern Samar to Negros Occidental and the islands in between — should prepare for a genuinely rainy Monday. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms throughout the region, caused by the ITCZ. The agency specifically warns of possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rains. This is the most significant weather impact zone in the country today, and residents living near waterways, low-lying areas, or slopes should be on alert.
Mindanao
Mindanao sees a split picture depending on which part of the island you are in. The Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Lanao del Sur are grouped with Visayas in the heaviest-impact zone — expect cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, and a real risk of flash floods or landslides from moderate to heavy rainfall, all driven by the ITCZ.
The rest of Mindanao — including areas such as Davao Region, Soccsksargen, and Bangsamoro — will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, also attributed to the ITCZ. Flash flood and landslide risks remain, but PAGASA notes they are most likely during severe thunderstorm episodes rather than throughout the day. Residents should still stay alert to rapidly changing conditions.
Palawan is also under the ITCZ's influence and is grouped with the first tier of affected areas — expect cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms, with flash flood and landslide hazards from moderate to heavy rainfall.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
The capital region and the broader island of Luzon are not under the direct influence of the ITCZ today. Instead, localized thunderstorms are the main weather driver for Metro Manila and surrounding provinces. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms for the area. While this sounds milder than what Visayas and Mindanao are experiencing, the agency still flags the risk of flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms. Residents in low-lying communities or near hillsides should not be complacent, especially during the afternoon when thunderstorm activity typically peaks.
Decoding the Warnings: What Each Hazard Label Means for You
PAGASA's forecast bulletin for today does not carry any active tropical cyclone wind signals — Typhoon Surigae remains well outside the country's borders. However, the bulletin does flag two specific hazard categories that readers should understand clearly.
The phrase "possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to heavy rains" — used for Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Palawan, and Lanao del Sur — means that the expected rainfall volume is high enough that flooding of low-lying areas and movement of unstable slopes could occur even without a formal rainfall warning color being raised. In practical terms: if you live near a river, a storm drain, a valley floor, or a hillside in these areas, you should know your evacuation route today.
The phrase "possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms" — used for the rest of Mindanao and for Luzon, including Metro Manila — means the risk is conditional: it spikes sharply when a thunderstorm intensifies. Thunderstorms can develop quickly and dump intense, localized rainfall in a short period, overwhelming drainage systems even in areas that seem dry just minutes before. If you see dark clouds building and hear thunder, move to higher ground or a sturdy building and stay away from flooded streets.
If you want a fuller explanation of how PAGASA classifies weather dangers — from rainfall color codes to storm wind signals — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You
Commuters
In Metro Manila and Luzon, localized thunderstorms are most likely to develop during the mid-morning to afternoon hours. If your commute overlaps with heavy rain, expect flooding in low-lying underpasses and streets. Allow extra travel time and avoid crossing flooded roads — even shallow-looking water can hide a washed-out surface or a strong current. In Visayas and the most-affected parts of Mindanao, rain may fall at any hour of the day, so carry rain gear regardless of what the morning sky looks like.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
PAGASA reports light to moderate winds and slight to moderate coastal waters across the country, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.5 meters in both Luzon waters and the seas around Visayas and Mindanao. These conditions are workable for larger fishing vessels, but small and motorized bancas should exercise caution. Winds from Visayas and Mindanao waters are blowing from the southeast to southwest. Given the active thunderstorm conditions in the ITCZ-affected zones, sea states can change rapidly — go out only if necessary, stay close to shore, and head back before thunderstorm activity builds.
Farmers
For farmers in Visayas, Palawan, and the northern and western parts of Mindanao, today's forecast means significantly wet field conditions. Prolonged moderate to heavy rains can waterlog low-lying agricultural land, stress root crops, and make field work difficult or dangerous. Farmers in elevated or sloped areas should also be alert to soil movement. If you have freshly planted crops, check drainage channels now. In Luzon, the mostly dry-to-partly-cloudy baseline with afternoon thunderstorms gives a narrower window for outdoor farm work — plan field activities for the morning hours.
Students, Parents, and Schools
With scattered to isolated thunderstorms possible across all regions, school administrators and parents should monitor PAGASA updates through the morning. Thunderstorms in the afternoon are particularly likely to cause disruptions during dismissal time. Parents picking up children from school in Visayas and Mindanao should prepare for wet conditions throughout the day, not just in the afternoon. Keep an eye on local government announcements, as class suspension decisions are made at the local level.
Outdoor Workers and Construction Sites
Workers in construction, infrastructure, and other outdoor jobs across Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan face the most challenging conditions today. Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms create hazards including slippery surfaces, reduced visibility, lightning risk, and the possibility of soil or rockfall near slopes. Site supervisors should assess conditions in real time and have a clear protocol for suspending work during active thunderstorms or if water levels rise near sites.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA recorded yesterday's temperature data at the Science Garden weather station in Diliman, Quezon City. The maximum temperature reached 31.0°C at 11:00 AM, while the minimum dipped to 25.4°C at 5:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 94 percent to a low of 68 percent over the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday. These figures are specific to Metro Manila's Quezon City area and reflect typical late-September conditions: warm daytime temperatures combined with high humidity levels that can make the heat feel more intense than the thermometer reading suggests — particularly during breaks between rain showers when the sun reappears.
Sunrise over Metro Manila today is at 5:46 AM and sunset at 5:48 PM. The moon is at 96 percent illumination, making tonight's near-full moon visible during any clear breaks in cloud cover.
Manila Bay Tidal Information
For reference, NAMRIA's tidal predictions for Manila Bay on Monday, September 28, 2026 are as follows: a low tide of 0.17 meters at 4:45 AM, a high tide of 0.83 meters at 11:26 AM, a low tide of 0.39 meters at 4:50 PM, and a high tide of 0.93 meters at 11:00 PM. Coastal communities along Manila Bay should factor these tidal levels into their assessment of flooding risk, particularly during periods of heavy rain.
Bottom Line
If you live in Visayas, Palawan, or the northern and western parts of Mindanao, today is a day to stay weather-aware from morning to night — the ITCZ is keeping rain and thunderstorm risk elevated throughout the day, and flash floods or landslides are a genuine possibility. Everyone else, including Metro Manila residents, should watch for afternoon thunderstorms and avoid flooded streets. No tropical cyclone warnings are in effect anywhere in the Philippines today.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.