MANILA, October 11, 2026 — Large swaths of the Philippines will experience cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms throughout Sunday, as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) tightens its grip on southern and central parts of the country while the easterlies stir up unsettled weather across portions of Luzon, according to a forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today.
Flash floods and landslides are the primary hazards flagged for today, with several regions — from Mindanao to Metro Manila — placed under that risk due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas are advised to stay alert.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
Three weather systems are at work across the archipelago today, according to PAGASA.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) — a broad belt near the equator where trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres collide, forcing warm, moist air upward and generating persistent clouds and rain — is directly affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. This system is responsible for the heaviest and most widespread rainfall in the country today.
The easterlies — winds blowing in from the Pacific Ocean toward the west — are influencing the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon, feeding moisture into areas including Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and Bulacan, and producing scattered thunderstorms across those areas.
A northeasterly windflow is affecting Extreme Northern Luzon, particularly Batanes, bringing cloudy skies and rain to the country's northernmost islands.
Meanwhile, PAGASA confirms that two tropical cyclones — Typhoon Koguma (2629) and a separate Tropical Depression — are currently located thousands of kilometers away, well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and are not affecting the country's weather today.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
Batanes will be cloudy with rain, driven by the northeasterly windflow. Flash floods and landslides are possible due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall.
Metro Manila, CALABARZON, parts of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and Bulacan face cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, powered by the easterlies. Flash floods and landslides are possible where rainfall becomes moderate to heavy. Residents and commuters in the National Capital Region should prepare for disruptions throughout the day.
Bicol Region and MIMAROPA are under the ITCZ's influence, with cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms expected. The risk of flash floods and landslides is elevated due to moderate to at times heavy rain.
The rest of Luzon — areas not specifically named above — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms attributed to localized thunderstorm activity. Flash floods and landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Visayas
Western Visayas and Negros Island Region will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the ITCZ. Residents face a risk of flash floods and landslides from moderate to at times heavy rain.
The rest of Visayas — including Eastern Visayas and Central Visayas outside the areas above — will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms associated with the ITCZ. Flash floods and landslides are possible during severe thunderstorm events.
Mindanao
All of Mindanao is under the ITCZ's influence today, with cloudy skies, scattered rains, and thunderstorms forecast across the region. Flash floods and landslides are a real concern due to moderate to at times heavy rainfall. Residents across Mindanao's mountainous provinces and low-lying coastal and riverside communities should remain on alert.
Wind and Coastal Conditions
PAGASA's forecast for coastal waters today reflects notably elevated sea conditions off parts of Luzon, with important implications for maritime activity.
Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Central Luzon will experience moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast to east. Coastal waters in these areas are forecast to be moderate to rough, with wave heights of 1.5 to 2.8 meters. These are dangerous conditions for small vessels.
The rest of Luzon will have light to moderate winds from the east to northeast, with coastal waters ranging from slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 2.1 meters.
Visayas will experience light to moderate winds from the southeast to northeast, with coastal waters at slight to moderate levels, wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
Mindanao will see light to moderate winds from the southwest to southeast, with coastal waters also at slight to moderate levels, wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
Understanding Today's Hazard Warnings
PAGASA has flagged the risk of flash floods and landslides for several areas today — a consequence of moderate to at times heavy rainfall. This is not a formal color-coded rainfall warning but a hazard advisory embedded in the forecast. It means the rainfall expected today is intense enough, in certain episodes, to overwhelm drainage systems and destabilize slopes in vulnerable areas.
Residents in landslide-prone mountainous zones and those living near rivers or low-lying flood-prone areas should take this advisory seriously and know their evacuation routes. For a full explanation of how PAGASA's warning systems work, including rainfall color codes and storm signals, read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What This Means for You
Commuters
Metro Manila and surrounding provinces — CALABARZON, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, and Aurora — are in for a wet Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms can develop quickly and disrupt road travel, flood underpasses, and delay public transport. If you must travel, give yourself extra time, avoid flood-prone roads during downpours, and keep an eye on real-time updates. Carry rain gear throughout the day.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Conditions off Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Central Luzon are the most hazardous today. Waves of 1.5 to 2.8 meters in moderate to rough seas pose a serious risk to small and bancas. PAGASA strongly advises fisherfolk in these areas to take precautions before heading out. In the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, wave heights are lower but still reach up to 2.1 meters in some areas — small-boat operators should assess conditions carefully before departure.
Farmers
The widespread rain across Mindanao, the Visayas, Bicol, and MIMAROPA today brings both risk and, for some, relief. However, the intensity of rain in ITCZ-affected areas can cause flash flooding that damages crops, particularly in low-lying fields. Farmers in flood-prone agricultural areas should monitor water levels and, where possible, clear drainage channels ahead of heavy downpours.
Students, Parents, and Schools
With thunderstorms forecast across Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Cagayan Valley, and much of Mindanao and the Visayas, parents sending children to school or activities today should monitor local government announcements on class suspensions. Thunderstorms can intensify rapidly, so plan departure and pickup times around weather updates.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, utility crews, and others working outdoors across Mindanao, the Visayas, Bicol, Metro Manila, and CALABARZON face exposure to thunderstorms that can bring lightning, strong gusts, and heavy rain. Supervisors should have clear protocols for suspending outdoor work when thunderstorms approach.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA recorded the following temperature and humidity readings at its Science Garden station in Diliman, Quezon City, for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM yesterday:
- Maximum temperature: 31.0°C (recorded at 2:00 PM)
- Minimum temperature: 25.2°C (recorded at 6:00 AM)
- Maximum relative humidity: 89% (recorded at 5:00 AM)
- Minimum relative humidity: 66% (recorded at 2:00 PM)
High humidity levels across the metro reflect the moisture-laden atmosphere being driven by the easterlies and proximity to the ITCZ. Combined with the cloud cover from scattered rains, conditions may feel heavy and muggy throughout the day.
Astronomical and Tidal Information (Metro Manila)
For reference, sunrise in Metro Manila today is at 5:47 AM and sunset at 5:39 PM. Moonrise is at 6:01 AM and moonset at 5:54 PM, with the moon at just 1% illumination — effectively a new moon, meaning little natural nighttime light. Tide data for Manila Bay today shows a high tide of 0.89 meters at 10:17 PM, which residents in coastal and low-lying bayside communities should factor in alongside any rainfall-driven flooding risk. (Tidal data courtesy of NAMRIA.)
Bottom line: Rain and thunderstorms will affect most of the country on Sunday, October 11, 2026, with the greatest flood and landslide risk in Mindanao, the Visayas, Bicol, MIMAROPA, and Metro Manila and nearby provinces. If you live in a flood-prone or landslide-prone area, know your evacuation route now — don't wait for floodwaters to rise. Fisherfolk off Northern Luzon should avoid rough coastal waters today.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.