QUEZON CITY, September 30, 2026 — A weather system straddling the southern half of the Philippine archipelago is making Wednesday a wet and stormy day for millions of Filipinos in Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao, according to a forecast bulletin issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today, valid until 4:00 AM on Thursday, October 1.
At the same time, PAGASA is keeping a close watch on a tropical depression located far out in the Pacific Ocean — still well outside Philippine territory — as it slowly tracks in a general westward direction.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The main culprit behind today's rainy conditions across southern and central Philippines is the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. In plain terms, the ITCZ is a belt near the equator where air masses from the northern and southern hemispheres meet and rise. When this rising air cools, it forms thick clouds that produce persistent rain and thunderstorms — sometimes heavy enough to cause flooding and trigger landslides in vulnerable areas. During the months around the rainy season, the ITCZ frequently drifts northward and drapes itself over the Philippines, particularly affecting the southern regions.
According to PAGASA, the ITCZ is directly affecting Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao today, making these areas the most weather-exposed parts of the country for the next 24 hours.
The Tropical Depression: Distant but Being Watched
PAGASA also reports that a tropical depression is currently located approximately 3,375 kilometers east of Central Luzon (at coordinates 15.6°N, 162.5°E) — a vast distance that places it well outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). As of 3:00 AM today, the system carried maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 55 km/h. It is moving west-southwestward at 10 km/h.
Because this system remains outside PAR and is still thousands of kilometers away, it is not directly affecting Philippine weather at this time and no tropical cyclone wind signals have been raised anywhere in the country. However, PAGASA continues to monitor its movement. Readers should watch for updated bulletins as the system's track and intensity may evolve in coming days.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Palawan
Residents of Palawan province should prepare for cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms throughout Wednesday and into Thursday morning. The ITCZ is the direct cause of these conditions. PAGASA warns that these rains may bring moderate to at times heavy rainfall, raising the risk of flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying coastal communities and mountainous interior areas. Residents in flood-prone barangays should remain on alert.
Visayas
The entire Visayas island group — encompassing Western, Central, and Eastern Visayas — falls within the ITCZ's coverage today. Expect cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. As with Palawan, PAGASA flags the risk of flooding and landslides due to moderate to heavy rainfall episodes. Provinces across Panay, Cebu, Bohol, Leyte, Samar, and Negros should all be on guard, with residents in mountainous and riverside communities exercising extra caution.
Mindanao
Mindanao, including the Zamboanga Peninsula, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, the Caraga region, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), is similarly under the influence of the ITCZ. Cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms are expected, with risks of flooding and landslides in susceptible areas. Given Mindanao's geography — with many communities near riverbanks, steep slopes, and coastal lowlands — local governments and residents should heed any flood advisories that may be issued by PAGASA and relevant local disaster risk reduction offices.
Metro Manila and the Rest of Luzon
Metro Manila and the broader Luzon mainland have a comparatively calmer weather picture today, though not entirely sunny. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms possible. While the ITCZ is not the primary driver here, localized convective activity — essentially afternoon or evening thunderstorms that develop on their own due to daytime heat — remains possible. Residents should be prepared for brief but potentially intense downpours, especially during the late afternoon hours.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
PAGASA's forecast for winds and coastal waters presents a broadly manageable picture nationwide, though small boat operators should still exercise standard caution:
- Luzon: Light to moderate winds. Coastal waters are slight to moderate.
- Tight to moderate winds are also expected over the seas around Luzon, with wave heights in the slight to moderate range.
- Visayas and Mindanao: Light to moderate winds from the northwest. Wave heights of 0.6 to 1.2 meters — classified as slight to moderate.
- Seas around Visayas and other coastal areas: Slight to moderate conditions, with light to moderate variable winds.
No gale warnings have been issued by PAGASA as of this bulletin.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Forecast Means
PAGASA has not raised any Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals anywhere in the Philippines at this time, as the tropical depression remains far outside PAR. However, the ITCZ-driven rainfall across Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao carries real hazard potential — particularly in terms of flooding and landslides.
Readers who want to understand how PAGASA classifies weather hazards — including rainfall color codes (yellow, orange, red), cyclone wind signals (No. 1 through 5), and heat index categories — can consult our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings for a plain-language breakdown of each level and what action to take.
For today, the key watchword is flooding and landslide risk in ITCZ-affected areas. Even without a formal rainfall warning color code indicated in this bulletin, "moderate to at times heavy rains" from the ITCZ are sufficient to rapidly fill rivers, overflow drainage systems, and destabilize hillsides — especially in areas where the ground is already saturated from previous days of rain.
Temperature Outlook
PAGASA's weather station in Quezon City recorded the following extremes for the 24-hour period ending at 6:00 PM yesterday (September 29, 2026):
- Minimum temperature: 25.3°C, recorded at 6:00 AM
- Maximum relative humidity: 61%, recorded at 2:00 PM
These readings reflect conditions at the Science Garden station in Quezon City and are representative of Metro Manila's climate baseline. No extreme heat index warnings are indicated in today's bulletin for any part of the country.
What This Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in Palawan, the Visayas, or Mindanao today, plan for delays caused by rain and potential flooding on roads and underpasses. Bring a raincoat or umbrella, and avoid crossing flooded streets on foot or by motorcycle. In Metro Manila and Luzon, isolated afternoon thunderstorms can still cause flash flooding in low-lying streets — leave early if possible.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
While PAGASA has not issued a gale warning and coastal waters are generally slight to moderate, conditions near Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao may be rougher due to ITCZ-related squalls. Small and bancà boat operators in these areas should exercise caution, stay close to shore, and avoid venturing out during active thunderstorms. Wave heights of up to 1.2 meters, while not extreme, can be hazardous for very small watercraft. Always check with your local coast guard or PAGASA station before setting out.
Farmers
For farmers in Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao, moderate to heavy rains could be beneficial for irrigation but may also damage crops, particularly those ready for harvest. Be vigilant for waterlogging in fields and potential soil erosion on sloped farmland. Farmers in Luzon face a lower immediate risk from rain today, though brief afternoon showers are possible.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in ITCZ-affected areas — particularly across the Visayas and Mindanao — should monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions, especially if heavy rain persists through the morning hours. Always follow the guidance of your local government unit (LGU), which has the authority to declare class suspensions based on on-the-ground conditions.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, agricultural laborers, and others who work outdoors in Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao face the greatest exposure today. Seek shelter immediately during lightning and thunderstorms. Employers should implement safety protocols for outdoor workers when sustained rain and thunder are occurring.
Bottom Line
If you are in Palawan, the Visayas, or Mindanao today, take the ITCZ-driven rain seriously — stay away from flood-prone areas, avoid rivers and steep slopes during heavy downpours, and check PAGASA updates regularly. The tropical depression far in the Pacific is not an immediate threat, but its movement warrants continued monitoring in the days ahead.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.