MANILA, August 21, 2026 — Large parts of the Philippines are waking up to wet, unsettled weather this Thursday as the southwest monsoon — locally called "habagat" — bears down on the country, its intensity amplified by Severe Tropical Storm Saudel churning in waters east of southeastern Luzon. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued this forecast at 4:00 AM today, valid through 4:00 AM on Friday, August 22.
Residents across Luzon in particular should prepare for a difficult day: heavy rain, strong winds, and rough coastal waters are all in the picture. Meanwhile, no part of the country is entirely dry — even areas outside the monsoon's direct path face scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms through the day.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The main weather driver today is the southwest monsoon, or "habagat" — the seasonal wind system that blows moisture-laden air from the southwest across the Philippine archipelago from roughly June through September each year. When habagat is active, it funnels vast amounts of warm, wet air from the South China Sea over western Luzon and other parts of the country, producing prolonged and sometimes intense rainfall.
Today, that monsoon is not acting alone. Severe Tropical Storm Saudel — located 275 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 3:00 AM today — is pulling additional moisture and energy into the atmosphere, effectively strengthening the habagat's reach and intensity. Think of the tropical storm as a pump that draws in and accelerates wind patterns already set in motion by the monsoon season. Saudel is packing maximum sustained winds of 60 km/h near its center, with gusts reaching up to 75 km/h, and is tracking north-northwestward.
The combination of an active southwest monsoon and a nearby tropical cyclone means that even areas not in Saudel's direct path are feeling its influence through heavier-than-normal monsoon rainfall.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon: Heavy Rain and Strong Winds Expected
Luzon bears the brunt of today's weather. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms across the region, with conditions expected to be heaviest over areas directly in the path of the southwest monsoon. Residents in low-lying coastal communities and mountainous provinces should be on alert for the possibility of flooding and landslides, particularly if rain accumulates over several hours.
Wind conditions over Luzon will be notably strong. The western and northern sections of Luzon will experience moderate to strong winds from the southwest, with coastal waters in those zones turning rough — wave heights are forecast at 2.1 to 3.8 meters. These are dangerous conditions for all types of sea craft, and PAGASA's wind and coastal water forecast effectively warns mariners and fisherfolk to stay ashore or in port.
The rest of Luzon — areas not on the western or northern coasts — will see light to moderate winds from the southwest, with coastal waters ranging from slight to moderate in height. Conditions are more manageable but still warrant caution.
Visayas: Light to Moderate Rain, Occasional Heavy Bursts
The Visayas region will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate rain through the forecast period. PAGASA notes this is also caused by the southwest monsoon, meaning rain will tend to persist rather than clear quickly. Occasional heavy bursts are possible. Coastal waters around the Visayas are described as slight to moderate, posing lower risk than those off western and northern Luzon, but fisherfolk and small-boat operators should remain attentive to changing sea conditions.
Mindanao: Partly Cloudy With Isolated Showers
Mindanao will see the most manageable weather of the three major island groups today. PAGASA forecasts partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies across most of Mindanao, with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms possible, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours when heat builds up through the day. Coastal waters off Mindanao are forecast as slight to moderate. Residents should still carry an umbrella and be aware that localized thunderstorms can develop quickly and intensely even on otherwise partly sunny days.
Decoding the Warnings: What Do They Mean for You?
PAGASA's forecast today does not list specific color-coded rainfall warnings (yellow, orange, or red) or tropical cyclone wind signals in the text of this bulletin — the primary alert is rooted in the monsoon forecast and the advisory status of Severe Tropical Storm Saudel, which remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of this bulletin's issuance. However, the rough seas advisory for the western and northern coastal waters of Luzon carries real and immediate implications.
Rough coastal waters (2.1 to 3.8 meters wave height) mean that the sea is unsafe for small boats, fishing vessels, and other light watercraft. PAGASA strongly advises mariners to take precautionary measures, and local coast guard and maritime authorities typically suspend small-vessel operations when these conditions are forecast. If you are unsure how to read the different levels of PAGASA's weather advisories, this guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings explains each level in plain language.
The situation with Saudel also bears watching. While the storm is currently outside PAR, its north-northwestward track means it could approach closer to the Philippine landmass in the coming days. PAGASA will issue updated bulletins as the storm's path becomes clearer.
What It Means for You Today
Commuters
Heavy rain and thunderstorms across Luzon — and scattered showers in the Visayas — mean traffic and flooding on low-lying roads are a real possibility. Allow extra travel time, avoid crossing flooded roads or bridges, and keep an eye on local government announcements about class and work suspensions. Carry rain gear and charge your devices before leaving home.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
This is a stay-ashore day for fisherfolk operating off the western and northern coasts of Luzon. Wave heights of 2.1 to 3.8 meters are dangerous for small and even medium-sized vessels. Do not attempt to go to sea until PAGASA issues an updated bulletin confirming that coastal waters have calmed. Even in the Visayas and Mindanao, where waters are described as slight to moderate, be cautious of afternoon squalls that can arrive with little warning.
Farmers
The persistent southwest monsoon rain is a double-edged situation for agriculture. While rain replenishes soil moisture, prolonged heavy rainfall — especially in western and northern Luzon — increases the risk of flooding in low-lying farmland and landslides on sloped terrain. Farmers should secure harvested crops and equipment. Those in upland areas should monitor slopes for signs of instability after prolonged rain.
Students and Parents
Parents in Luzon should monitor their local government units and school division offices for class suspension announcements. Heavy, sustained monsoon rain — especially when combined with strong winds — frequently triggers local suspensions. Have contingency plans ready in case school dismissal is announced during the day.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, utility crews, and others who work outdoors in Luzon and the Visayas face wet and gusty conditions today. Workers near elevated or exposed sites — scaffolding, rooftops, utility poles — should follow safety protocols and consider suspending work during intense downpours or if lightning is detected nearby.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
PAGASA's recorded observations for the 24-hour period ending 4:00 PM yesterday provide a baseline for Manila and surrounding areas. The maximum temperature recorded was 37°C at 12:00 PM, while the minimum dipped to 24.4°C at 2:00 AM. Humidity ranged from a maximum of 98% at 6:00 PM to a minimum of 55% at 5:00 PM.
The combination of cloud cover from today's monsoon activity may suppress daytime maximum temperatures slightly compared to yesterday, but high humidity levels — particularly during and after rain — will keep the "feels like" temperature uncomfortable for those outdoors. Stay hydrated, wear breathable clothing, and seek shade or shelter during any breaks in the rain.
Sunrise, Sunset, and Tidal Information
For those planning their day around daylight hours, PAGASA records sunrise at 5:45 AM and sunset at 6:16 PM for Manila today. Tidal predictions show a low tide of 0.25 meters at 1:57 PM. Coastal communities should note tidal timing when assessing flood risk during peak rainfall periods.
Bottom line: The southwest monsoon, fueled by nearby Severe Tropical Storm Saudel, is making today a wet and potentially hazardous day across the Philippines — with Luzon bearing the greatest risk. If you are in western or northern Luzon, prepare for heavy rain, strong winds, and stay away from rough coastal waters. Keep your family's emergency kit ready, and follow PAGASA updates closely as Saudel's track develops.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.