QUEZON CITY — The southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, is bringing a wet and stormy Saturday to millions of Filipinos across Western Visayas, Mindoro, and Palawan on September 19, 2026, according to a forecast issued by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 4:00 AM today. Residents in affected areas face a real risk of flash floods and landslides as moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to persist through the day.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Dujuan (2625) remains well outside Philippine territory but is being monitored as it tracks northwestward in the Pacific Ocean.
What Is Driving Today's Weather
The primary weather driver today is the southwest monsoon, or habagat — the seasonal wind system that blows moist air from the southwest across the Philippines between roughly June and October each year. When habagat is active, it funnels large amounts of warm, moisture-laden air from the sea onto land, producing persistent and sometimes intense rainfall particularly along western-facing coastlines and mountainous terrain. Today, PAGASA says the southwest monsoon is directly affecting the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas, explaining the heavier rainfall concentrated in those areas.
For most of the rest of the country, localized thunderstorms — brief but intense storm cells that develop from daytime heating rather than a large organized weather system — are the main source of rain showers and lightning today.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
In Southern Luzon, the provinces of Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Palawan are under the direct influence of the southwest monsoon today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms — meaning rain will not be a rare, fleeting shower but rather a recurring feature throughout the day. Rainfall intensity is described as moderate to at times heavy, which raises a genuine hazard of flash floods in low-lying areas and landslides along slopes and mountainous terrain. Residents in riverside communities and hilly barangays in these provinces should remain on alert.
Metro Manila and the remainder of Luzon not under the southwest monsoon can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, driven primarily by localized thunderstorm activity. While conditions will generally be less severe than in the southwestern provinces, flash floods and landslides are still possible during especially intense thunderstorm episodes — a reminder that even brief, localized downpours can overwhelm drainage systems and cause sudden flooding in urban and low-lying areas.
Winds across the rest of Luzon are light to moderate, blowing from the northeast to northwest. Coastal waters are slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
Visayas
Western Visayas faces some of the most challenging weather in the country today. PAGASA forecasts cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms here as well, with moderate to at times heavy rainfall directly attributed to the southwest monsoon. Flash floods and landslides are explicitly flagged as hazards. Residents in provinces such as Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental should take these warnings seriously, particularly those living near rivers, low-lying coastal zones, and hilly areas.
The Negros Island Region — covering Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental — can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, with the southwest monsoon still cited as a contributing factor. Flash floods and landslides remain possible when thunderstorms intensify.
Winds over the Visayas are light to moderate, coming from the southwest to west. Coastal seas are slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters.
Mindanao
In Zamboanga Peninsula, conditions mirror those of the Negros Island Region: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, with the southwest monsoon as the weather driver and the risk of flash floods and landslides during severe thunderstorms remaining present.
The rest of Mindanao — including Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region — falls under the localized thunderstorm forecast: partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, and the ever-present possibility of flash floods and landslides during heavy bursts. Coastal waters around Mindanao are slight to moderate, with waves of 0.6 to 1.8 meters, and winds are light to moderate from the southwest to west.
Typhoon Dujuan: Outside PAR, Being Monitored
As of 3:00 AM today, Typhoon Dujuan (2625) is located approximately 2,000 kilometers east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, at coordinates 26.4°N, 140.5°E — placing it firmly outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the center with gusts of up to 150 km/h, and is moving northwestward at 20 km/h. PAGASA has not issued any tropical cyclone wind signals for any part of the Philippines in connection with Dujuan at this time. The storm is not directly influencing domestic weather conditions today.
Decoding the Warnings: What the Hazard Flags Mean
PAGASA has flagged possible flash floods or landslides for several areas today. These are consequence-based hazard warnings, not formal color-coded rainfall warnings — but they carry a clear message: rainfall in these areas may be heavy enough, or terrain steep enough, to cause sudden flooding of low-lying ground and destabilization of slopes within a short period. You do not need to see a formal warning bulletin to act; if you are in an area flagged for these hazards and you observe rapidly rising water or visible soil movement, move to higher, safer ground immediately.
If you want a deeper understanding of how PAGASA structures its different warning levels — including rainfall color codes, tropical cyclone wind signals, and heat index categories — read our guide on how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
What It Means for You Today
Commuters
If you are commuting in Metro Manila or other urban centers today, expect the possibility of sudden, intense rainshowers at any time of day, most likely in the afternoon when daytime heating peaks. Bring a reliable umbrella or rain gear. In Western Visayas, Mindoro, and Palawan, do not attempt to cross flooded roads or waterways on foot or by motorcycle — moving floodwater even at shin height can knock a person off balance.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Coastal waters nationwide are rated slight to moderate, with wave heights of 0.6 to 1.8 meters. While these conditions are manageable for larger vessels, small bancas and fishing boats should exercise caution, particularly off the western coasts of Luzon and Visayas where monsoon-driven winds are strongest today. Always check with your local Coast Guard station before heading out.
Farmers
Farmers in Western Visayas, Mindoro, and Palawan should take precautions to protect crops and farm infrastructure from potential flooding. Drainage channels should be cleared if not already done. Those in low-lying fields prone to inundation may want to postpone fieldwork until conditions improve.
Students and Parents
No class suspensions have been announced in PAGASA's forecast data. However, parents and students in the most heavily affected areas — particularly Western Visayas, Mindoro, and Palawan — should monitor local government announcements throughout the morning, as conditions could warrant suspension decisions if rainfall intensifies. Keep an eye on your local government's official social media channels.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others working outdoors across the country should have contingency plans for sudden downpours and lightning. Lightning is a genuine risk wherever thunderstorms are forecast — seek shelter in a sturdy building or hardtop vehicle immediately if you hear thunder or see lightning, and do not shelter under trees or in open structures.
Temperature and Humidity Outlook
At PAGASA's official weather station at Science Garden in Diliman, Quezon City, yesterday's recorded temperature high was 31.2°C at 12:00 noon, with a low of 24.7°C at 6:00 AM. Relative humidity ranged from a high of 97% to a low of 69% — meaning the air felt significantly more humid than the temperature alone would suggest. On a day with widespread cloud cover and rain, temperatures across Metro Manila and much of the country are likely to remain in a similar range, though cloud cover may keep afternoon peaks from reaching as high as recent sunny days.
Sunrise in Metro Manila today is at 5:45 AM and sunset at 5:55 PM. The moon is 56% illuminated, rising at 12:35 PM and setting at 11:55 PM.
Bottom Line
If you are in Western Visayas, Mindoro, or Palawan, treat today's southwest monsoon rains seriously — stay away from rivers, avoid flood-prone low-lying areas, and do not cross flooded roads. Everyone else should carry rain gear for sudden thunderstorms and stay away from flood-prone areas during heavy bursts.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph.