MANILA, July 19, 2026 — The southwest monsoon, known locally as the habagat, is pushing rain and thunderstorm activity across parts of Luzon this Sunday, according to PAGASA's 4:00 AM public weather forecast. The western coastal provinces of Northern and Central Luzon face the most significant weather threat today, with the possibility of flash floods and landslides due to moderate to heavy rainfall. The rest of the Philippines, including Metro Manila, the Visayas, and Mindanao, should also prepare for scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms brought about by localized convective activity.
What Is Driving Today's Weather?
The primary weather driver today is the southwest monsoon, or habagat. This is a seasonal wind system that blows from the southwest, typically from June through September, carrying warm, moisture-laden air from the sea onto the western coast of the Philippines. When this moisture-heavy air rises over land — especially near mountain ranges — it cools rapidly and produces heavy rainfall. That is why the Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan, which all face the South China Sea and lie along the country's western flank, are receiving the brunt of the rain today. For the rest of the country — areas not directly in the path of the habagat — localized thunderstorms are the main concern, developing in the afternoon heat as the sun warms moist air near the surface.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Luzon
The most significant weather conditions in Luzon today are concentrated along the western coast. The Ilocos Region (Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan), Zambales, and Bataan will experience cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms, courtesy of the southwest monsoon. PAGASA warns that the moderate to at times heavy rainfall in these provinces could trigger flash floods or landslides. Residents in low-lying areas and those near slopes and mountainsides should remain alert.
Further north and inland, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) — which includes Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, and Abra — along with Batanes and the Babuyan Islands will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, also influenced by the southwest monsoon. While the baseline weather is less intense here, PAGASA cautions that severe thunderstorms could still cause flash floods or landslides in these areas, particularly given the mountainous terrain of the CAR.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon not covered above — including Central Luzon (excluding Zambales and Bataan), CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and the Bicol Region — will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms driven by localized thunderstorm development. Flash floods or landslides remain possible during severe thunderstorm episodes.
Visayas
The Visayas — covering Western Visayas, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas — falls under the general forecast for "the rest of the country," meaning residents can expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. These will be driven by localized thunderstorm activity rather than the monsoon directly. The usual afternoon thunderstorm pattern applies. Flash floods or landslides remain possible should any thunderstorm intensify.
Mindanao
Like the Visayas, Mindanao — including Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region — will see partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms from localized thunderstorm activity. Residents should remain mindful of the possibility of flash floods or landslides during any severe thunderstorm episode.
Decoding the Warnings: What PAGASA Is Actually Telling You
No tropical cyclone wind signals or color-coded rainfall warnings have been issued by PAGASA for this forecast period. However, the bulletin contains language that carries real implications for safety.
The phrase "possible flash floods or landslides due to moderate to at times heavy rains" — used for the Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan — is PAGASA's way of saying that the volume and intensity of rain expected in these areas is sufficient to overwhelm drainage systems and destabilize slopes. This is not a casual advisory. Residents in these provinces, especially those in flood-prone barangays or communities near hillsides, should treat this as a genuine safety signal.
Even the milder phrase used for other areas — "possible flash floods or landslides during severe thunderstorms" — means that while widespread heavy rain is not expected, any isolated thunderstorm that does develop could still produce dangerous, sudden flooding in low-lying areas. For a plain-language guide on how to interpret PAGASA's weather warning system, see how to read PAGASA's weather warnings.
Wind and Coastal Water Conditions
Winds across the entire country are expected to be light to moderate, blowing from the south to southwest — consistent with the prevailing habagat pattern. Coastal waters nationwide will be slight to moderate, with wave heights ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 meters. While these are not the most extreme sea conditions, the upper end of that range — especially when combined with rain and reduced visibility from thunderstorms — can pose risks for small watercraft.
What It Means for You
Commuters
If you are commuting in the Ilocos Region, Zambales, or Bataan today, expect rain to be heaviest and most persistent. Roads near rivers and low-lying areas may flood. Allow extra travel time and avoid crossing flooded roadways — no matter how shallow they appear. In Metro Manila and other areas, afternoon thunderstorms can develop quickly; carry an umbrella and consider leaving earlier or later to avoid peak downpours.
Fisherfolk and Small-Boat Operators
Wave heights of up to 1.8 meters across all coastal waters, combined with rain and possible thunderstorms, warrant caution. Small-boat operators — particularly those on the western coast of Luzon where the habagat is blowing directly — should carefully assess sea conditions before departure. When in doubt, stay ashore. Your safety is more important than the catch.
Farmers
Farmers in the Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan should be aware of the flash flood and landslide risk, especially for low-lying crops and those on sloped terrain. Secure any loose equipment and assess whether field drainage is adequate. In other regions, the isolated nature of today's showers means farming activities can largely proceed normally, though afternoon thunderstorms should be monitored.
Students, Parents, and Schools
Parents and school administrators in the Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan should closely monitor local government announcements regarding class suspensions, as PAGASA's warning of moderate to heavy rains and flash flood risk in these areas may prompt local officials to act. In other areas, today's weather is unlikely to cause widespread disruptions, but afternoon thunderstorms are possible.
Outdoor Workers
Construction workers, delivery riders, and others working outdoors in the western Luzon provinces should plan their most exposed tasks for the early morning hours when rain may be less intense. In all other areas, be ready to seek shelter quickly when thunderstorms develop, typically in the early to mid-afternoon. Lightning poses a real danger during any thunderstorm episode.
Temperature and Heat Outlook
Based on observations recorded at PAGASA's Science Garden station in Diliman, Quezon City — for the 24-hour period ending at 8:00 PM on July 18, 2026 — Metro Manila's temperature ranged from a minimum of 25.8°C at 5:00 AM to a maximum of 33.3°C at 2:00 PM. Relative humidity fluctuated between 57% and 90%, with the higher humidity levels making the heat feel more oppressive than the thermometer reading alone suggests.
Today, with more cloud cover and rain activity driven by the habagat, temperatures in the western sections of Luzon may feel somewhat lower. However, in areas that remain partly cloudy and dry through the morning — particularly in the Visayas and Mindanao — the combination of heat and humidity ahead of afternoon thunderstorms could still feel uncomfortable. Stay hydrated, wear breathable clothing, and limit prolonged outdoor exertion during the hottest part of the day.
Sunrise in Metro Manila today is at 5:36 AM and sunset at 6:29 PM. The moon, at 30% illumination, rose at 10:01 AM and sets at 10:15 PM.
Bottom Line
If you are in the Ilocos Region, Zambales, or Bataan, the single most important thing you can do today is stay away from rivers, flood-prone areas, and unstable slopes — the southwest monsoon is bringing heavy rain with a real risk of flash floods and landslides in your area. Everywhere else in the country, watch the sky in the afternoon and take shelter quickly when thunderstorms develop.
Monitor official PAGASA updates at pagasa.dost.gov.ph